Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.68 lower at $61.58. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down with the spot-month contract testing support at $61.49. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $45.19 through the high of $69.22. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating a test of the 50% retracement level of $57.41 is likely.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $4.11 lower at $55.52. As expected, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned down last week as the spot-month contract posted a new 4-week low of $55.41. Given the close near its new low the market could see a breakaway bearish gap next week with a lower open Sunday evening. Next support is pegged at $52.31, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $42.03 through the high of $62.58. The 67% retracement level is down at $48.87.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 6.35cts lower at $1.7993. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract moving toward trendline support pegged this week at $1.7624. If the market fails to find buying there, the spot-month contract could slide back to a test of the previous low of $1.6643. Weekly stochastics are neutral.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 4.70cts lower at $2.0015. The secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend looks to be gaining strength with the spot-month contract in position to post a new 4-week low below the $1.9934 (last week's low). Given its close near its low, the market could also see a bearish breakaway gap on its weekly chart. Weekly stochastics remain bearish following the crossover above the overbought level of 80% the week of June 14.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.90cts higher at $1.6280. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend continues to strengthen with the spot-month contract moving to a new 4-week high of $1.6340 last week. The next target is its previous high of $1.7090, then $1.7785. This latter price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $2.2650 through the low of $1.2920.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed fractionally lower at $2.770. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Resistance is the recent high of $3.115 while initial support is at the low of $2.556. The most recent signal by weekly stochastics is a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% indicating the market could continue to see buying interest.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 0.12ct higher at $0.3400. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up with initial resistance at the 4-week high, last week's high of $0.3525. Support is at the low of $0.2675. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bullish indicating the market could continue to see increased buying interest.

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