Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Livestock Markets

Live Cattle: The August contract closed at $148.075, down $3.20 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains down with support between $141.85 and $137.30. These prices mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of previous uptrend from $79.975 (March 2009 low) through $172.75 (November 2014 high). The 50% retracement level is down near $126.35.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Feeder Cattle: The August contract closed at $214.725, down $8.225 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains down. Initial support is near $192.375, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $85.50 (December 2008 low) through $245.75 (October 2014 high). The 50% retracement level is down at $165.625.

Lean Hogs: The August contract closed at $74.375, down $9.075 on the monthly chart. Despite the sharp sell-off, the major (long-term) trend remains up. The pullback by August lean hogs in June (low of $71.175) resulted in at test of support near $71.60, the 50% retracement level of the initial rally from $57.85 (March 2015) through the high of $85.325 (May 2015). The 67% retracement level is down near $67.00.

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.89, up 56 cents for the month. The NCI.X confirmed it has moved into Wave 3 of a 5-Wave uptrend (Elliott) with a move above its Wave 1 peak of $3.80 (December 2014). Just for good measure, the NCI.X also established a bullish reversal after establishing a new low of $3.29 for Wave 2. Initial resistance is pegged at $4.10, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.26 through the October 2014 low of $2.81. The long-term upside price target is between $4.63 and $4.90.

Soybean meal: The most active December contract closed at $345.40, up $39.70 on the continuous monthly chart. Soybean meal established a bullish key reversal in June, turning the major (long-term) trend up. Given the continued bullish commercial outlook indicated by the market's forward curve, the upside target is between $418.40 and $459.60. These prices mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $541.80 through the low of $295.10.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

P[] D[728x170] M[320x75] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .