Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

The weekly chart for RBOB gasolines shows a possible top formation and bearish crossover by stochastics. (Source: DTN ProphetX)

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.85 lower at $63.02. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with support at $61.49. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $45.19 through the high of $69.22. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the spot-month contract could move to a test of the 50% retracement level of $57.41.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.35 lower at $59.61. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract holding below resistance between $58.60 and $65.41. These prices mark the 23.6% and 33% retracement levels of the previous secondary downtrend from $112.24 through the low of $42.03. Support is at the 4-week low of $56.51. Stochastics continue to hold above the overbought level of 80%, establishing another bearish crossover last week.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.23cts lower at $1.8669. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract holding below resistance at $1.9841. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.2633 through the low of $1.5890. Trendline support is pegged at $1.7485 this week, well below last Friday's closing price. Weekly stochastics are bullish.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 6.25cts lower at $2.0586. The market looks to have established a secondary (intermediate-term) top after the spot-month contract fell back from its test of resistance at $2.1892. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.1525 through the low of $1.2265. Weekly stochastics posted a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, confirming the possible end to the recent uptrend.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 0.30cts lower at $1.4750. Indications are that the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The ongoing sell-off looks to be a minor (short-term) downtrend resulting in a test of support at $1.4309. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the initial rally from $1.2920 through the high of $1.7090.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 6.6cts higher at $2.816. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Resistance is the recent high of $3.115 while support is at the low of $2.443. The most recent signal by weekly stochastics is a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% indicating the market could continue to see buying interest. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests reducing their net-short futures holding by 23,764 contracts.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 4.88cts lower at $0.2887. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways again with resistance at the high of $0.4025 and support at the recent low of $0.2675. Weekly stochastics are now neutral back below the oversold level of 20%.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, June 16.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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