Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.42, up 9 cents. Last week saw the NCI.X establish a 2-day reversal, indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. The rally off support at $3.31, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous secondary uptrend from $2.81 through the high of $3.80, also established a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. Resistance is pegged between $3.47 and $3.64.

Corn (Old-crop): The July contract closed 9.00cts higher at $3.60 1/2. Last week's action saw July corn establish a 2-week reversal indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. The higher close also led to a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20% confirming the move to an uptrend. Initial resistance is pegged near $3.76, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.31 1/2 through the recent low of $3.48 1/4. Note that the latter established a potential double-bottom with the contract low of $3.46 3/4 (week of September 29, 2014).

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 10.00cts higher at $3.78. Dec corn posted a bullish reversal last week, trading outside the previous week's range and closing higher for the week. The low of $3.65 also established a double-bottom with its contract low of $3.64 1/4 (week of September 29, 2014). Weekly stochastics posted a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, confirming the same signal established the week of May 11. All indications are that the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is now up. Initial resistance is pegged between $3.90 and $4.02 1/2.

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Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.05, up 4 cents for the week. The NSI.X continues to hold near support at $9.02, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from $8.50 through the high of $10.08. Last week's rally established a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%, indicating the NSI.X is set to resume its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend.

Soybeans (old-crop): The July contract closed 3.75cts higher at $9.37 3/4 last week. July soybeans held above last week's new contract low of $9.20 1/2, with Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing noncommercial interests reducing their net short-futures position by 6,125 contracts. The higher weekly close led to bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20% indicating the contract has resumed its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 8.50cts higher at $9.14 1/4 last week. Nov soybeans traded outside the previous week's trading range, setting a new contract low of $8.96 3/4 before closing above the previous week's high of $9.13. By any definition the contract looks to have established a bullish key reversal indicating a move to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. With Nov beans soon to take over the role of most active contract, the most recent trend signals are key bullish reversals on both weekly and monthly (October 2014) charts.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.92, up 39 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, dating back to a bullish reversal established the week of May 4. Weekly stochastics also remain bullish. The combination of gap higher (previous week's high was $4.67, this past week's low was $4.68) and the previous week's gap lower creates an island reversal indicating the minor (short-term) sideways-to-down trend has come to an end. Initial resistance is pegged near $5.00, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $6.23 through the low of $4.38 (week of May 4). The 50% retracement level is up near $5.30.

SRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Chicago contract closed 40.00cts higher at $5.17. The contract has resumed its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, posting a bullish outside week last week. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, building off of recent crossovers below the oversold level of 20%. Initial resistance remains at $5.61, the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $7.62 through the contract low of $4.60 3/4. The 50% retracement level is up near $6.11 1/2.

HRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Kansas City contract closed 36.50cts higher at $5.35 1/4. July Kansas City wheat posted a bullish outside week last week, indicating it has resumed its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, building off recent crossover below the oversold level of 20%. Initial resistance is at the 4-week high of $5.64 1/2, with retracement resistance pegged near $5.97. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.20 through the contract low of $4.85 1/2.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, June 2.

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