Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.07 lower at $65.39. The spike to a new high of $69.63 was a test of resistance at $69.22, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $117.34 through the low of $45.19. The subsequent lower weekly close looks to be a spike high, a signal confirmed by the establishment of a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% by weekly stochastics. Therefore, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend now looks to be down with support between $61.49 and $57.41.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.24 higher at $59.39. The higher close indicates the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, though weekly stochastics are well above the overbought level of 80% and in position for a bearish crossover. Resistance is pegged at $65.41, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $112.24 through the low of $42.03. The spot-month contract continues to hold above trendline support on buying from both commercial and noncommercial traders. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed the latter adding 10,862 contracts to their net-long futures position.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.85cts lower at $1.9537. Indications are that the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up though the spot-month contract was unable to close above resistance at $1.9841. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.2633 through the low of $1.5890. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bullish meaning the market could turn sideways.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 5.35cts lower at $1.0018. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend now looks to be down with last week's lower close. Weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, confirming the possible spike reversal by the spot-month contract.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 5.2cts higher at $1.6590. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains up as the spot-month contract continues to test technical resistance at $1.6637. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $2.2650 through the low of $1.2920. Weekly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80%, indicating a bearish change in momentum could soon occur.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 10.4cts higher at $2.88. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up with the spot-month contract closing near its new 4-week high of $2.888. Initial resistance is pegged at $3.39, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.493 through last week's low of $2.443. A test of this resistance would also be a test of the lower end of a bearish price gap ($3.351) left the week of December 22, 2014.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 4.75cts lower at $0.4250. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Support is at $0.3775, the previous low from the week of January 5, 2015.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, May 5.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

P[] D[728x170] M[320x75] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .