Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.45, down 10 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up while the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-down. Support remains at $3.31, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the rally from $2.81 (October 2014 low) to $3.80 (December 2014 high).

Corn (Futures): The July contract closed at $3.66 1/4, down 10 cents on the monthly chart. While the major (long-term) trend remains up, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-down. Support is at $3.56, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the rally from $3.18 1/4 (October 2014 low) to $4.17 (December 2014 high).

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Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.36, up 7 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways, with initial support at the October 2014 low of $8.50. Resistance is at the November high of $10.08. The NSI.X continues to hold near the 50% level (midpoint) of this sideways range at $9.29. Monthly stochastics remain neutral below the oversold level of 20% indicating the next breakout could be toward the upside.

Soybeans (Futures): The July contract closed at $9.76, up 2 3/4 cents on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) remains up, based on the key bullish reversal at the end of October 2014 coinciding with a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. However, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-down with support pegged near $9.65 3/4, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the initial rally from $9.04 (October 2014 low) to $10.86 1/4 (November 2014 high). If this support fails to hold, soybean futures could fall back to test the previous low of $9.04.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.42 down 43 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways with support at $4.25 (low from September 2014) and resistance at $6.23 (high from December 2014).

SRW Wheat (Futures): The July Chicago contract closed at $4.74 1/2 down 37 1/2 cents on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend looks to have turned down again following the establishment of a bearish outside month and a new low of $4.64. Monthly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20%, but could continue to trend lower.

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