Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.92 higher at $57.87. Though the market continues to consolidate, weekly stochastics indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Resistance is still pegged near $62.22, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $117.34 through the low of $45.19. Support remains near $54.09, the 50% retracement level of the initial rally from $45.19 through the high of $63.00.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.50 higher at $51.64. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with resistance at $54.24, the high from the week of February 2, 2015. Support is at the recent low of $42.03. Weekly stochastics are bullish, indicating the market should see an upside breakout in the coming weeks.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 8.36cts higher at $1.7661. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at the previous low of $1.5890. Resistance is at the 4-week high of $1.8827. Weekly stochastics are short-term bearish, though the last secondary signal was a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 4.60cts higher at $1.8073. The market could be nearing the end of its pennant pattern, consolidation phase, with weekly stochastics indicating a likely resumption of the secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Given the technical rule "flags and pennants fly at half-mast" a bullish breakout would project the next leg higher to test resistance at $2.4165, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $3.1520 through the low of $1.2265.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 0.50ct higher at $1.5680. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains up. Resistance is at $1.6637, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $2.2650 through the low of $1.2920. The 50% retracement level is up $1.7785. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, well below the overbought level of 80%.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 20.2cts lower at $2.511. Last week's move to a new low of $2.504 reestablished a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Weekly stochastics are well below the oversold level of 20%, indicating the market remains sharply oversold.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 2.00cts higher at $0.4775. The minor (short-term) trend is sideways while the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. Cash propane held support at $0.4466, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of its initial rally from $0.3775 through the high of $0.5850. Weekly stochastics remain neutral, with the last signal a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%.

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