Technically Speaking
Monthly Analysis: Grain Markets
Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.55, down 10 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up, while the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down. Support remains at $3.31, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the rally from $2.81 (October 2014 low) to $3.80 (December 2014 high). The long-term price target remains $4.90, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $8.26
(August 2012) to $2.81 (October 2014). The April 2014 high was $4.86.
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Corn (Futures): The May contract closed at $3.76 1/4, down 17 cents on the monthly chart. While the major (long-term) trend remains up, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down. A move back to support near $3.56, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the rally from $3.18 1/4 (October 2014 low) to $4.17 (December 2014 high) could turn stochastics neutral in April. However, the long-term price target remains $5.21, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement of the previous major downtrend from $8.49 (August 2012 high) to the October 2014 low.
Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.29, down 55 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways, with initial support at the October 2014 low of $8.50. Resistance is at the November high of $10.08. The NSI.X continues to hold near the 50% level (midpoint) of this sideways range at $9.29. Monthly stochastics remain neutral below the oversold level of 20% indicating the next breakout could be toward the upside.
Soybeans (Futures): The May contract closed at $9.73 1/4, down 58 1/2 cents on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) remains up, based on the key bullish reversal at the end of October 2014 coinciding with a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. However, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down with support pegged near $9.65 3/4, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the initial rally from $9.04 (October 2014 low) to $10.86 1/4 (November 2014 high). If this support fails to hold, soybean futures could fall back to test the previous low of $9.04.
Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.85, down 3 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways with support at $4.25 (low from September 2014) and resistance at $6.23 (high from December 2014).
SRW Wheat (Futures): The May Chicago contract closed at $5.11 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways as the more active futures contract continues to hold above its previous low of $4.66 1/4. Resistance is near $6.26 1/2, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $9.47 1/4 (high from July 2012) through $4.66 1/4 low (September 2014).
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