Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $55.11, down $7.47 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend appears to have turned sideways with support at the January 2015 low of $45.19 and resistance at the February high of $63.00. The continued strengthening of the contango in the nearby futures spread reflects an increasingly bearish commercial outlook, a factor that could lead to a test of initial support, if not the December 2008 low of $36.20.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $47.60, down $2.16 on the monthly chart. The market posted a new low of $42.03 in March before rallying towards the end of the month. While the major (long-term) trend looks to still be sideways, this new low increases the chances for a resumption of the major downtrend. With the market's strong contango reflecting a bearish view of supply and demand, next support is pegged at the December 2008 low of $32.48.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.7179, down 58.10cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend is sideways with support pegged at the January 2015 low of $1.5890. Monthly stochastics are neutral below the oversold level of 20%.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.7800, down 1.24cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend of the market is up, based on the bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% by monthly stochastics at the end of February. Initial resistance is pegged at $2.0869, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the downtrend from $3.4789 (high from April 2011) through the low of $1.2265 (from January 2015). The 50% retracement level is up at $2.3527.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.487, up 4.3cts on the monthly chart. The market continues to consolidate within January's range from $2.265 to $1.514, indicating the major (long-term) trend is sideways. Monthly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%, possibly working toward a bullish crossover in the coming months.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $2.640, down 9.4cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend could be turning sideways as the spot-month contract held above the February low of $2.567. Monthly stochastics are well below the oversold level of 20% (3.6% and 6.2% respectively) indicating the market could see a change in trend soon.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.4600, down 11.75cts on its monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways with support at the January 2015 low of $0.3775.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

P[] D[728x170] M[320x75] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .