Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.70, up $0.06 for the week. The NCI.X posted a bullish gap while establishing a new 4-week high of $3.74. This would seemingly indicate the market has moved back into a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with an initial target near $3.84. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.86 through the low of $2.81.

Corn (Old-crop): The May contract closed 6.00cts higher at $3.91 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is now sideways with resistance near $4.01 3/4, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the secondary downtrend from $5.27 through the low $3.39 1/4. Support remains near $3.68.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 5.50cts higher at $4.14 3/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways. Resistance is at the high of $4.21 3/4 (week of February 9, 2015) while support is near $3.91 1/2. The latter marks the 67% retracement level of the initial rally from $3.64 1/4 through the high of $4.40.

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Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.23, down 4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Initial resistance remains at the recent high of $9.84, then the range high of $10.02. Support is near $9.10.

Soybeans (old-crop): The May contract closed 6.50cts lower at $9.67 1/4 last week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways, the close below support at 9.77 1/2 sets the stage for a possible sell-off back to a test of its contract low at $9.28 3/4. Weekly stochastics are below 20%, indicating the market is oversold.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 7.50cts lower at $9.48 3/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways, with the contract testing trendline support of $9.46 at Friday's close. A bearish break could send Nov beans to a test of the contract low of $9.27 1/2.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.82, down 21 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Support is at the recent low of $4.55 while resistance is near $5.11. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $6.23 through the $4.55 low.

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The May Chicago contract closed 22.25cts lower at $5.07 3/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Support is at the recent low of $4.78 1/4 while resistance near $5.44 1/4 continues to hold. The latter price marks the 33% retracement level of the sell-off from the high of $6.76 3/4 through the $4.78 1/4 low.

HRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Kansas City contract closed 17.25cts lower at $5.57 3/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways, with resistance at $5.86 (the high from the week of February 17) and support and the recent low of $5.22 3/4. Stochastics are neutral to bullish, favoring a possible upside breakout in the near future.

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