Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.63, up $0.06 for the week. Despite the higher close, technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. However, last week saw the NCI.X rally off its test of support at $3.47, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the uptrend from $2.81 through the high of $3.80, before rallying to a higher close. This creates a possible break of initial resistance at $3.68 leading to a retest of longer-term resistance at $3.84. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the secondary downtrend from $4.86 through the $2.81 low.

Corn (Old-crop): The May contract closed 4.50cts higher at $3.85 last week. Technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. However, May corn posted a solid rally off support near $3.68, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of its previous secondary uptrend from $3.39 1/4 through the high of $4.25 1/4. A retest of this support could pull weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%, setting up a potential bullish crossover that could lead to the next secondary uptrend.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 4.50cts higher at $4.09 1/4 last week. Similar to old-crop May and the NCI.X, Dec corn technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. Again like the other corn markets though, the contract was able to post a solid rally off its support near $3.91 1/2, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of its previous secondary uptrend from $3.64 1/4 through the high of $4.40. A test of last week's low ($3.92 1/2) could be enough to pull weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.27, down 1 cent for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways despite the fact the NSI.X posted a new low of $9.08. The solid rally to close at the weekly high could possibly establish a spike reversal of a double-bottom low ($9.12 and $9.08). Initial resistance remains at the recent high of $9.84, then the range high of $10.02. A bearish move confirming the new low could send the NSI.X back to its previous low of $8.50.

Soybeans (old-crop): The May contract closed 0.25ct lower at $9.73 3/4 last week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways, the move below the previous low of $9.61 3/4 sets the stage for renewed selling to take May beans back to a test of its contract low at $9.28 3/4. If the contract finds follow-through buying interest, resistance is at the recent high of $10.39.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 3.00cts higher at $9.56 1/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways, with last week's rally off the low of $9.39 possibly establishing a double-bottom (the previous low was $9.40). However, the fact the Nov beans moved to a new low last week could open the door to additional selling and a test of the contract low of $9.27 1/2.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.03, up 27 cents for the week. The SR.X has posted a strong rally off its recent low of $4.55, but has not established a new 4-week high that would confirm a move to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. This could occur soon given that the new 4-week high is last week's close of $5.03. If so, initial resistance is at $5.11, the 33% retracement level of the secondary downtrend from $7.11 through the low of $4.25.

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The May Chicago contract closed 28.00cts higher at $5.30 last week. Despite the strong two-week rally off its contract low of $4.78 1/4, May Chicago wheat has not broken out of its secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend. However, this could occur soon with a move above last week's high (also the new 4-week high) of $5.30 1/2. Weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, indicating momentum has changed. If a secondary uptrend is confirmed initial resistance is near $6.04 1/2, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.57 1/2.

HRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Kansas City contract closed 31.25cts higher at $5.75 last week. As with cash and old-crop wheat, the new-crop July Kansas City contract is on the verge of confirming a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. All that is needed is a move above last week's high, now the 4-week high, of $5.75 1/2. Weekly stochastics have already established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%. If an uptrend is confirmed, initial resistance is pegged near $6.21 3/4. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $8.20 through the contract low of $5.22 3/4.

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