Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.65 higher at $55.32. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the spot-month closing above technical support at $54.09. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the initial rally from $45.19 through the high of $63.00. Weekly stochastics remains bullish indicating a retest of resistance at $62.22 is possible.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.88 higher at $45.72. Last week's move to a new low of $42.03 would indicate the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. However, the spot-month contract was able to rally to a higher close, hinting at a possible spike reversal on the weekly chart (the monthly chart continues to indicate a major downtrend). Weekly stochastics also turned bullish again implying a potential bullish change in momentum.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.13cts higher at $1.7343. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at the previous low of $1.5890. Weekly stochastics are short-term bearish, though the last secondary signal was a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 3.55cts higher at $1.7978. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, with the recent sell-off resulting in a test of support at $1.6909. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the initial rally from $1.2265 through the high of $1.9779. Resistance remains between $2.0060 and $2.2469, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels respectively of the previous secondary downtrend from $3.2672.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.5cts higher at $1.4890. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains sideways as the spot-month contract consolidates between $1.5400 and $1.2920. Weekly stochastics are now bullish, indicating the market is working toward a bullish breakout. If this occurs the target price would be $1.7880, adding the range of the sideways trend ($1.5400 - $1.2920 = $0.2980) to the breakout point ($1.5400).

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 5.9cts higher at $2.786. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Weekly stochastics are neutral to bullish below the oversold level of 20%. Resistance remains at the recent high of $3.039 with support at the low of $2.567, creating a range of 47.2cts.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 1.87cts lower at $0.4588. Despite another lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Cash propane held support at $0.4466, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from $0.3775 through the recent high of $0.5850.

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