Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $5.06 lower at $54.67. Despite the lower close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with weekly stochastics bullish. The spot-month contract has fallen back from its test of resistance at $62.22, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $117.34 through the low of $45.19. Support is at $54.09, the 50% retracement level of the rally from $45.19 through its recent high of $63.00.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $4.77 lower at $44.84. The secondary trend remains sideways though the spot-month contract fell to within striking distance of its previous low of $43.58. If this price fails to hold the target price becomes $32.92. This price is arrived at by taking the range of the previous sideways trend ($54.24 - $43.58 = $10.66) and subtracting it from the previous low.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 15.60cts lower at $1.7130. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways with last week's sell-off resulting in a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the oversold level of 20%. Support is at the previous low of $1.5890.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 11.96cts lower at $1.7623. Despite last week's sell-off the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. However, the spot-month contract has fallen back from its test of resistance at $2.0060, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.2672 through the low of $1.2265. Initial support is at $1.6909, the 38.2% retracement level of the rally from $1.2265 through the recent high of $1.9779.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 1.6cts lower at $1.4440. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains sideways as the spot-month contract consolidates between $1.5400 and $1.2920. Weekly stochastics are now bullish, having climbed above the oversold level of 20%. If this leads to a bullish breakout the target price would be $1.7880, again adding the range of the sideways trend ($1.5400 - $1.2920 = $0.2980) to the breakout point ($1.5400).

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 11.2cts lower at $2.727. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Weekly stochastics are neutral to bullish below the oversold level of 20%. Resistance remains at the recent high of $3.039 with support at the low of $2.567, creating a range of 47.2cts.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 6.0cts lower at $0.4775. Despite last week's sell-off the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Cash propane is testing support at $0.4812, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the rally from $0.3775 through the recent high of $0.5850.

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