Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.72 higher at $61.52. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The spot-month contract is testing initial resistance at $62.22, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $117.34 through the low of $45.19. The 38.2% retracement level is up at $72.75. Weekly stochastics remain bullish.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.09 higher at $52.78. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. Initial resistance is at the 4-week high of $54.24, then $59.78. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $112.24 through the low of $43.58 is up at $69.81. The 38.2% retracement level is up at $69.81. The uptrend could be limited by continued bearish fundamentals indicated by the downtrend (strengthening contango) in the nearby futures spread.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 13.22cts higher at $1.9714. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. The spot-month contract is testing initial resistance at $1.9850, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.2668 through the recent low of $1.5890. The 38.2% retracement level is up at $2.2299. A strong uptrend in the futures spreads, reflecting an increasingly bullish supply and demand situation, should continue to provide support.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 6.71cts higher at $1.6262. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. The spot-month contract is moving toward a test of initial resistance at $1.7081, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.2672 through the low of $1.2265. The 38.2% retracement level is up at $2.0060.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 0.30cts higher at $1.4420. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains sideways as the spot-month contract continued to consolidate. Initial resistance is at the 4-week high, now last week's high, of $1.4730. Weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, indicating the secondary trend could soon turn up.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 22.5cts higher at $2.804. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to have turned up last week as the spot-month contract posted a two-week key bullish reversal. A confirmation of this move could come with a move to a new 4-week high above $3.048 or a bullish crossover below 20% by weekly stochastics.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 5.50cts higher at $0.5600. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is pegged between $0.7455 and $0.7996, the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend.

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