Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.58, unchanged for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with initial support at $3.47. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.81 through the high of $3.80. National average basis held steady last week at 29 cents under (NCI.X - March futures).

Corn (Old-crop): The March contract closed 0.25ct lower at $3.86 3/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with next support pegged at $3.73 3/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.30 1/2 through the high of $4.17. The March contract consolidated last week despite pressure from both commercial and noncommercial traders. Commercial selling was indicated by the strengthening carry in the March to May futures spread, moving it back to a slightly bearish level of total cost of carry. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests reducing their net-long position by 13,684 contracts.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 2.50cts higher at $4.17 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with support between $4.15 1/2 and $4.03 1/2. These prices mark the 33% and 50% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $3.64 1/4 through the high of $4.40. Given the neutral carry in the new-crop December 2015 to March 2016 futures spread the Dec contract could continue to move sideways between its previous high and the $4.03 1/2 support level.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.22, down 18 cents for the week. Technical indicators show the NSI.X remains in a sideways trend, though it has dipped to a lower support area between $9.26 and $9.01. These prices mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the previous rally from $8.50 through the $10.02 high the week of December 8. The recent bearish breakout of the sideways range between approximately $9.50 and $10.00 indicates the NSI.X could test the lower end of the retracement range at $9.01. National average basis firmed by about 1 cent, with the NSI.X at 50 cents under the close of the March futures contract.

Soybeans (old-crop): The March contract closed 19.00cts lower at $9.72 3/4 last week. Pressure came from both commercial and noncommercial traders, pushing the March contract to a test of major support near $9.64 3/4. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from $9.04 (October 2014 low) through $10.86 1/4 (November 2014 high). Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests moving to a net-short futures position of 7,740 contracts, a switch of 20,866 contracts from the previous week. This was due in large part to an increase of 17,355 contracts in their short futures position.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 15.50cts lower at $9.59 3/4. This past week's close was below support near $9.64 1/4, a price that marks the 67% retracement level (weekly close only) of the rally from $9.31 3/4 through the high of $10.29. The latter was a test of resistance near $10.28 3/4, the 33% retracement level (again, weekly close only) of the previous secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend from $12.22 3/4 through the $9.31 3/4 low. The break of support combined with neutral to bearish weekly stochastics would indicate a likely test of the previously mentioned low.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.01, down 3 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with next support at $4.91. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $4.25 through the high of $6.23. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the SR.X should continue to move lower.

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The March Chicago contract closed 2.75cts lower at $5.30 last week. Once again the March contract closed below support near $5.35 3/4 (weekly close only), a price that marks the 67% retracement level of its previous secondary uptrend from $4.87 1/2 (week of September 22) through the high of $6.32 1/4 (week of December 15). Weekly stochastics remain neutral to bearish. If commercial buying continues to provide support the contract could move back above the $5.35 3/4 level. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed most of the pressure continues to come from noncommercial interests, with this group reducing their net-long holdings by 5,066 contracts.

SRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Chicago contract closed 1.75cts lower at $5.36 1/2 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the July contract well below support near $5.53. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the uptrend from $4.96 1/2 through the high of $6.66.

Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders were report showed positions as of Tuesday, January 20.

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