Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.06 higher at $50.17. After posting another new low of $45.19 last week, the spot-month contract was able to rally to a higher close, near its weekly high of $50.62. On a weekly candlestick chart this established a dragonfly doji pattern, signaling a possible bullish turn in the market. Also, weekly stochastics posted a bullish crossover in single digits. However, given the market's continued bearish fundamentals it is hard to make the argument the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.33 higher at $48.69. Last week's action (an opening price of $48.19, new low of $44.20, rally to a high of $51.27, close near the weekly open) established a doji on crude oil's weekly chart. This pattern indicates indecision on the part of traders, and led to a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics well below the oversold level of 20%. With bearish fundamental slowing (seasonally), it is possible to make the argument the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is set to turn up. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests added 6,680 contracts to their net-long futures position.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 3.74cts lower at $1.6656. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, last week's action resulted in mixed technical signals. The spot-month contract posted a solid rally off its new low of $1.5890, moving back above major (long-term) support at $1.6550. Monthly stochastics remain in single digits and are nearing a bullish crossover, while weekly stochastics posted a bullish crossover last week. Seasonally the market moves into an uptrend that lasts through the end of April.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 3.56cts higher at $1.3588. After posting a new low of $1.2265 the spot-month contract was able to rally to a challenge of the previous week's high of $1.4404 before closing higher. Combined with the establishment of another bullish crossover well below the oversold level of 20% and increasing demand (weekly EIA number), the market may have moved into its seasonal secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend that lasts through late April.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 18.1cts higher at $3.127. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to have turned up with the spot-month contract posting a bullish key reversal. The late week rally brought the market back above major (long-term) support at $2.985. Monthly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%, setting the stage for a possible bullish crossover at the end of the month.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 6.37cts higher at $0.4700. With cash propane closing near its weekly high of $0.4725, the market is in position to establish an island bottom on its weekly chart. To complete the pattern it needs to gap higher next week. Stochastics show a bullish crossover as the market came to a close Friday, also indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

P[] D[728x170] M[320x75] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .