Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.72, up 12 cents for the week. Despite weekly stochastics showing the cash market in an overbought situation, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The NCIX closed at its weekly high, with the next target $3.84. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.86 through the low of $2.81. The commercial side of the market continues to grow more bullish with national average basis holding steady at 35 cents under last week while the nearby March to May futures spread saw its carry weaken slightly to 8 1/4 cents. This is roughly 67% of calculated full cost of carry, a slightly bearish level.

Corn (Old-crop): The March contract closed 12.50cts higher at $4.07 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the March contract finishing last week above technical price resistance at $4.04. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $5.23 through the low of $3.30 1/2. The next target is the 50% retracement level of $4.26 3/4. If tested, this would close a bearish price gap from the week of July 7. However, weekly stochastics are above 80% indicating an overbought situation. With the carry in the March to May futures spread holding at a slightly bearish 67% of calculated full cost of carry, the March contract could soon show signs of establishing a short-term top.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 9.0cts higher at $4.31 3/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the December contract testing resistance near $4.34. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.04 through the low of $3.64 1/4. Given that the December 2015 to March 2016 continues to show a neutral level of carry, the contract may start to find increased selling interest. Also, weekly stochastics are near 90% or higher indicating a sharply overbought situation.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $10.00, up 12 cents for the week. Weekly stochastics indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, with its initial price target at $10.66. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $14.97 through the low of $8.50. Both national average basis (48 cents under) and the carry in the nearby January to March futures spread (6 1/2 cents, or roughly 44% of calculated total cost of carry) both reflect a neutral commercial outlook.

Soybeans (old-crop): The January contract closed 11.25cts higher at $10.47 1/4. While the futures contract looks to be consolidating between resistance at $10.54 1/4 and support at $10.19 3/4, weekly stochastics continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. The carry in the January to March futures spread closed last week at a neutral 6 1/2 cents, indicating the Jan contract should extend its uptrend to the next target near $10.98. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $12.84 through the low of $9.12 1/4.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 6.00cts higher at $10.19 3/4. Weekly stochastics indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, with the futures contract testing resistance between $10.29 and $10.43 3/4. These prices mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $12.32 through the low of $9.27 1/2. The carry in the November (2015) to January (2016) futures spread closed last week at 5 1/2, reflecting a neutral to bullish commercial outlook. This would indicate that the contract should extend its rally to the 50% retracement level of $10.79 3/4, if not the 61.8% to 67% retracement range between $11.15 3/4 and $11.30 1/2 longer-term.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.76, up 12 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the SR.X posting a bullish outside week last week (traded outside the previous week's range before closing higher, and above the previous week's high). The close of $5.76 was above resistance at $5.68, the 50% resistance level of the previous downtrend from $7.11 through the low of $4.25. The next target is the 67% retracement level of $6.17, though weekly stochastics are already well above the overbought level of 80%.

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The March Chicago contract closed 12.50cts higher at $5.72 3/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the next target $6.28. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the downtrend from $7.76 through the low of $4.80. Support continues to come from the commercial side of the market with the March to May futures spread in a strong uptrend (weakening carry) and national average basis closing at 31 cents under last week. This would imply that the March contract could extend its rally to the 67% retracement level near $6.77 1/2.

SRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Chicago contract closed 5.50cts higher at $6.07 3/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the next target at $6.29 1/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $7.62 through the low of $4.96 1/2. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, indicating the contract should be able to extend its uptrend in the coming weeks. The July to September futures spread remains in an uptrend (weakening carry), closing at 8 cents last week.

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