Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed at $3.88 3/4, 12cts higher for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is pegged at $4.43 1/2, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.49 (high from August 2012) through the October 2014 low of $3.18 1/4. Monthly stochastics are growing more bullish indicating the market could continue to extend its rally.

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.48, up 12 cents for the month. The trend of the market has turned up, putting the long-term price target near $4.90. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.26 (August 2012) through $2.81 (October 2014). Initial resistance could be found near the 23.6% retracement level of $4.10. Monthly stochastics are growing mover bullish after the bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% established at the end of October.

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Soybeans (Futures): The January contract closed at $10.16, 33.25cts lower for the month. Despite the lower close the major (long-term) trend remains up. The initial long-term price target remains $12.43, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $17.89 (September 2012 high) through the low of $9.04 (October 2014). The market's bullish forward curve would imply an eventual test of the 50% retracement level of $13.47 1/4.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.66, down 20cts for the month. The cash market continues to wait on the establishment of a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics, meaning the NSI.X could continue to consolidate over the coming months. If so support remains near $9.05.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The March Chicago contract closed at $5.78 1/2, 46cts higher for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up. The market is testing initial resistance at $5.79 3/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $9.47 1/4 (high from July 2012) through $4.66 1/4 (September 2014 low). The 38.2% retracement level is up at $6.50.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.44, up $0.51 for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up with an initial price target near $5.88. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $39. with an initial price target near $5.88. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $9.14 (July 2012 high) through $4.28 (September 2014 low).

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Commodity trading is very complicated and the risk of loss is substantial. The author does not engage in any commodity trading activity for his own account or for others. The information provided is general, and is NOT a substitute for your own independent business judgment or the advice of a registered Commodity Trading Adviser.

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