Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $69.73, down $15.71 for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains down with support between $71.42 and 66.90. These prices mark the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $36.20 (low from December 2008) through $128.40 (high from March 2012). Monthly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% indicating the market could begin to stabilize.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $66.15, down $14.39 for the month. The major (long-term) trend is down with the spot-month contract testing support at $63.94. This price marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $32.48 (December 2008) through $114.83 (May 2011). Monthly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20%. The spot-month contract could look to stabilize between the 61.8% retracement level and the 67% retracement level of $59.90.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $2.1612, down 35.33cts for the month. The major (long-term) trend is down with the spot-month contract below support at $2.2476. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.1252 (March 2009) through $3.37 (January 2014). Monthly stochastics have fallen into single digits indicating a sharply oversold situation. The spot-month contract could look to gravitate back toward support at the 50% retracement level.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.8276, down 34.19cts for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains down with support pegged at $1.8141. This price marks the 61% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.7850 (December 2008) through $3.4789 (April 2011).

However, monthly stochastics are holding above the oversold level of 20%, meaning the market could test the 67% retracement level of $1.6740.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $4.088, up 21.5cts for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways. The last major signal established by monthly stochastics was a bullish crossover at the end of May 2012. The rally and subsequent interim peak did not create a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%.

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