Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.41, down 4 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The NCI.X continues to hold above support at $3.27, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the initial rally from the low of $2.81 through the recent high of $3.33. Resistance remains at $3.50, the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.86 through the $2.81 low. Given the bearishness of the carry in the December to May forward curve, it could be difficult for the NCI.X to push much past this resistance level.

Corn (Futures): The nearby December contract closed 9.00cts lower at $3.72 3/4 while the more active March contract was 9.00cts lower at $3.85 1/4. Despite the lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Both contracts have held support near $3.69 3/4 and $3.74 1/4 respectively. However, resistance in the December is pegged near $3.84 1/2 and in the March between $3.94 1/2 and $4.04. Given the bearishness of the carry in the December to May forward curve, these resistance areas could spark increased selling interest in the weeks to come while possibly establishing a turn to a secondary downtrend.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.88, up 21 cents for the week. The NSI.X looks to have reestablished its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, though needs a move to a new 4-week high above $10.08 to confirm. Its initial upside target remains $10.66, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $14.97 through the low of $8.50. However, given the neutral level of carry in the January to May forward curve the NSI.X could extend its rally to the 50% retracement level of $11.74.

Soybeans (Futures): The January contract closed 16.50cts higher at $10.39 after holding its test of support at $9.99 1/4. This price marks the 50% retracement of the initial rally from $9.12 1/4 through the previous week's high of $10.86 1/4. Given the late week rally, combined with indications from weekly stochastics, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Resistance remains between $10.54 1/4 and $10.98, prices that mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $12.84 through the $9.12 1/4 low. Neutral carry in the market's forward curve would imply another test of the 50% retracement level is possible.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.14, down 10 cents for the week. Despite the lower close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is at $5.20, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $7.11 through the low of $4.25. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, indicating a possible extension of the uptrend to a test of the 50% retracement level of $5.68.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The nearby December Chicago contract closed 13.25cts lower at $5.47 1/4 last week. The more active March contract was 9 1/4cts lower at $5.53 1/4. Despite the lower closes the trend secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is pegged near $5.65 3/4 in the December and $5.78 1/2 in the March, prices that mark the 33% retracement levels of the previous downtrends for both contracts. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, but indicate the market could move into a consolidation phase if futures contracts find renewed selling at these resistance levels.

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