Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.12 3/4, down 17 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, in line with the market's seasonal index through the first week of October. National average basis (NCI.X minus the futures market) was calculated at about 26 cents under the December contract, fractionally weaker for the week. Weekly price distribution studies (close only) show the market to be underpriced. Last week's close puts the NCI.X in the lower 2% of the 5-year range, the lower 26% of the 10-year, the lower 18% since the beginning of corn's demand market with the 2005-2006 marketing year, and the lower 33% of the range since total domestic demand climbed above 10 bb during the 2003-2004 marketing year.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed 17.50cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains down following last week's move to a new low of $3.35 3/4. While weekly stochastics continue to indicate the market remains sharply oversold, the December contract could look to test major (long-term) support $2.90. Both the 5-year and 10-year seasonal indexes show the futures market tends to trend down through the first weekly close in October.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $10.80, down $0.68 for the week. National average basis (NSI.X minus the futures market) was calculated at $0.95 over the November contract, 32 cents weaker for the week. The NSI.X is now priced in the lower 23% of the market's 5-year distribution range. However, buyers could stay on the sidelines given the markets strong seasonal tendency (both the 5-year and 10-year indexes) to trend down through the first weekly close in October. The 5-year index shows a 13% drop from the first weekly close of September (2014 = $11.48) while the 10-year index shows a 10% decrease. This puts the possible target range between $10.33 and $9.99.

Soybeans (Futures): The November contract closed 36.25cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down following the establishment of another new low of $9.69 1/2. Major (long-term) support on the continuous monthly chart (most active contract) remains between $9.91 1/2 and $9.28 1/4. Seasonally the futures market tends to trend down through the first weekly close in October, with the November contact dropping 8% (5-year index) from the first weekly close in September. This puts the possible low weekly close target near $9.40.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.57, down 34 cents for the week. National average basis was calculated Friday at 45 cents under the December Chicago contract, unchanged for the week. The trend of SR.X remains down, in step with its 5-year seasonal index that shows a tendency to post a low the first weekly close of October. On average the SR.X tends to lose 9% from its high weekly close the first week of August. This year's market move has already seen the SR.X drop 12% from its secondary high of $5.19 the second week of August.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The December Chicago contract closed 35.75cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Major (long-term) support on the continuous monthly chart (most active contract) is at $4.25 1/2, the low from June 2010. Friday's close of $5.02 1/2 put the December contract in the lower 12% of the market's 5-year price distribution range. The 5-year low weekly close is $4.35 3/4.

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