Technically Speaking

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn: The May contract closed 13.00cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart is sideways. Secondary resistance remains at $5.01 3/4, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.76 1/2 through the low of $4.14 1/2. Support is at the four-week low of $4.52. Next resistance and support is at $5.45 1/2 and $4.58 1/2 respectively. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding 16,276 contracts to their net-long futures position, putting it at 258,627 contracts, the largest net-long futures position since late March 2013.

Soybeans: The May contract closed 27.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with weekly stochastics back above the overbought level of 80%. The May contract is nearing resistance at the recent high of $14.60. If the secondary trend turns down, initial support is at $13.51 1/4, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous rally from $11.75 1/2. A move through the previous high could lead to a test of major (long-term) resistance on the monthly chart between $14.75 3/4 and $15.49 3/4. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by another 11,549 contracts, putting it at 176,363 contracts.

Wheat: The Chicago May contract closed 2.25cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. However, the May contract is consolidating below resistance at $7.25 3/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.98 through the low of $5.53 1/2. Weekly stochastics remain bullish but are approaching the overbought level of 80%. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders adding to their net-long futures position by 9,748 contracts, putting it at 21,575 contracts.

Cotton: The May contract closed 0.43cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The May contract posted a bullish outside pattern last week, establishing a new high of 97.35. However, the close just above the previous week's high may have established a spike top, particularly considering the bearish crossover seen in weekly stochastics (see chart). If the secondary trend has turned, initial support is pegged at 90.63, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reducing their net-long futures position by 464 contracts, putting it at 65,272 contracts.

Live Cattle: The June contract closed 2.225 higher. The market reestablished its uptrend as the June contract moved to a new high of $139.00 last week. This action offset the key bearish reversal seen the previous week despite the fact weekly stochastics show the market is sharply overbought. Initial support is now pegged between $132.35 and $130.30, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous uptrend. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders added to their net-long futures position by 1,918 contracts.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report was for positions held as of Tuesday, March 25.

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