Technically Speaking

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

By  Darin Newsom

Corn: The March contract closed 5.50cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart is sideways. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, while the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders covering a small portion of their net-short-futures position (as of the week ending Tuesday, January 21). The March contract remains in a range between roughly $4.20 and $4.40.

Soybeans: The March contract closed 31.75cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Initial resistance is pegged near $13.30, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $13.77 3/4 through the low of $11.74. Support is between $12.68 1/2 and $12.41 3/4. Weekly stochastics remain neutral.

Wheat: The Chicago March contract closed 1.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains down. However, the March contract continues to hold above the recent low of $5.60 1/2. Weekly stochastics continue to indicate the market is sharply oversold with both in single digits (3.6% and 4.6%). The March contract is also below major (long-term) support at $5.99 1/4.

Cotton: The March contract closed 0.41cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The March contract continues to trade above resistance at 85.96, a price that marks the 67% retracement of the previous downtrend from 90.61 through the low of 76.65. The contract also traded above its previous high of 87.62 before falling back at the end of the week. Weekly stochastics remain bullish.

Live Cattle: The April contract closed 0.80 higher. After posting a new high of $143.125 early in the week the April contract fell to a close of $140.10. This late sell-off established a bearish by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%, indicating the market has possibly established a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. If so, initial support is pegged near $136.40, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $125.50 through this past week's high.

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Mike Baker
1/25/2014 | 9:04 PM CST
Interesting turn to the corn market in the last two weeks. After all the gloom of the past two months the strength is somewhat encouraging. The factor over looked may be the replacement of high priced hay with relatively cheap corn in a lot of stocker and cow herd rations. With hay at $150 per ton or more and corn at $4 ($142.80 per ton) the cheapest wintering ration may be corn and some filler, such as straw, stalks or low quality pasture, resulting in corn disappearance. By the way I have moved half my corn crop at over $5 here in western Wyoming and see no difficulty cleaning the bin by spring and almost all to stocker cattle. Mike