Fundamentally Speaking

June 2015 Rainfall for Top Corn, Soybean States

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

Tale of two cities as far as U.S. corn crop conditions as of mid-July with a number of Eastern Corn Belt states suffering from excess moisture while most regions west of the Mississippi River save for Missouri continue to thrive.

The latest USDA crop ratings show a combined 16% of the Illinois corn crop either in the very poor or poor category, 23% for Indiana, 22% for Ohio and 16% for Missouri.

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This should be no surprise as more heavy rains in July have followed an extraordinarily wet June.

This graphic shows June 2015 precipitation in inches for the top 21 corn and soybean producing states, the amount of precipitation last month as a percent of the 1950-2014 June rainfall average and the highest amount of June precipitation any of these states have had since 1950.

No surprise that IL, IN and OH had their great amount of June precipitation at least since 1950 last month with all getting at least twice the amount of their normal June rainfall.

Missouri had its third highest amount of rainfall and interestingly Pennsylvania had their second highest amount of June rainfall since 1950 though the latest crop condition report shows 80% of that state's corn crop in either good or excellent condition.

The other states had good rains in June with only KS and MN having less than 100% of their normal June precipitation.

(KA)

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Raymond Simpkins
7/19/2015 | 10:11 PM CDT
Chart is not very accurate, we had 6in. out of one storm alone here in Michigan. Your graph only shows 4in. for the month. Same with Ohio,there were areas that got more than 8in. out of same storm. If that is showing averages it don't mean much.
Freeport IL
7/16/2015 | 10:08 PM CDT
We use a model based on Dec CME option values merged with WASDE estimates to develop a feel for US yield prospects versus current futures price. This model has a rather large error. The current environment points to a US harvested acre yield of 151 to 162 to support a $4.50 Dec CME price. One might call it; "Trend yield or below". Models by others tend to show current US yield at trend or higher. Our inclination is to agree with those models at this time. Profitable outcomes for our model - northwestern Illinois farm -with current conditions are dependent upon high pre-harvest sales and a mid-point or above relative farm yield or a relatively low cost structure. Crop insurance looks - this year and on the model farm - to be only a positive factor in the very low relative farm yields. (Many will find this statement totally untrue for their operations.) ARC county shows be a positive factor and should help add to income. (Some very high yielding counties, mainly in the western corn-belt may not find this to be true.) We still have a long way to go. Selling $4.50 corn on the board does not assure profits -at this time- for the Northwestern Illinois farm used in the model. The main point is lower US yield prospects appear to be needed (from the model) than currently projected to support current prices. Freeport, IL