Fundamentally Speaking

Corn Yields Can Hold Despite Heavy Rains

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

The grain markets spiked sharply higher this week as funds feverishly cover short positions and perhaps are getting long as December corn now along with November soybeans have convincingly pierced longstanding downtrend lines adding to an increasingly bullish technical picture.

The fundamental catalyst for this rally remains very heavy rains in many areas of the Midwest concentrated mostly in Delta and Eastern Corn Belt. Traders are unsure how to react to the unusual situation of "too much rain".

Nonetheless concerns center on areas of intended corn and even larger parcels of soybeans left to be planted, the impact of standing water on young plants and saturated soil conditions resulting in leaching of nutrients and inability to side dress.

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The biggest factor as far as we are concerned is now row crops needing constant water all growing season as the establishment of an extensive root system has been compromised as a sudden stoppage in moisture ala 1974 or 1995 could prove devastating.

As we learned in 2012, a dry June can be devastating to the crops but the experience with a wet June is different. Many are recalling 1993 but rains and floods that year so far were far more extreme.

Work we have done suggests that a wet June in of itself does not necessary translate into below trend final corn yields.

This graphic shows the years of "heavy" June rainfall in the key Eastern Corn Belt states of IL, IN and OH since 1970 and the percent in each of those years that states final corn deviated from the 1970-2014 trend.

We defined heavy rain as the 1970-2014 average plus one standard deviation, a level that is exceeded 16% of the time or less.

In Illinois that was 5.95 inches of which there were eight occurrences, seven times in Indiana that June rainfall was 5.77 inches or higher and 5.48 inches or more in Ohio which occurred five times.

Of these 20 occurrences, only seven times were final corn yields below trend the most being Ohio's 2008 yield 12.3% below trend.

Even the rainiest Junes where average precipitation was 7.62 inches yields were right at trend.

(KA)

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DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN
7/7/2015 | 12:19 AM CDT
last year in central Mn we lived through heavy rain from April till the end of June, then the rain stopped till Sept, yields were terrible 60 to 120 corn beans 15 to 30. lot of land also not planted. Another problem those conditions produce besides rutting in fields is very tough tillage conditions. Lots of broken parts also fuel consumption was very high. Again CBOT or USDA crop ratings are so wrong, the usual tactic USDA uses for their almighty reports that controls the "markets" that producers have to live with.
DOUG FLAGEOLE
7/6/2015 | 7:53 PM CDT
corn in Kankakee county is 40%dead or will be soon .crop ratings all good . what ever
Wally frey
7/6/2015 | 1:30 PM CDT
it's not only the drowned out spots that are gone it's also the area around the spot that will be as big or bigger as time goes on
tman
7/2/2015 | 8:52 AM CDT
Just drove from North Dakota to North Carolina and back, taking a different route on the return through Pennsylvania, then across northern Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. (I went through Indianapolis and then east on the way out so I could see more crop) Crop looked good in VA and NC, but I would concur with Raymond on conditions in OH, IL, IN. Good looking fields are few and far between. I didn't see much of Illinois, but the crop conditions peaked in Central WI and then got steadily worse as I went south and east.
Raymond Simpkins
7/1/2015 | 9:15 AM CDT
Just drove from Michigan to Fort Worth Texas, Oh. Ind. Ill. yields are gone. Those states corn and bean crops will not recover. Lots of unplanted acres also. Got word from my son we got 5 in. On Saturday alone no beans sprayed and big weeds. You guys need to hit the roads and look,forget about the last ten year averages. Some of these places got more rain out of Bill than they have had in 10 years total. No trend-line this year guys.
GLENN TROYER
6/30/2015 | 11:08 AM CDT
There are significant areas in Oh, IN and Il that have received over 20 inches in June.
Richard Gvillo
6/30/2015 | 10:32 AM CDT
They say that a picture speaks a thousand words. Anyone else think DTN should have a page where in growers could upload photos of their own corn and bean fields.
Unknown
6/30/2015 | 7:34 AM CDT
You may also want to consider that in many areas May was also as wet as June.
RICHARD ECKERLEY
6/29/2015 | 2:39 PM CDT
How about when you have 13 inches for the month of June?
JASON BODE
6/29/2015 | 12:05 PM CDT
The biggest problem I see with this analysis is the assumption that all 7.62 inches were spread out over the entire month - or at a minimum over 3-4 larger storm systems. It appears the problems are coming from systems that are dropping 3+ inches at one shot. While those 3"+ storms nestle nicely into monthly averages, medium term based statistics cannot account for that damage. Our specific area is 129% of normal for the month of June - but we lost 5-6% of our acreage due to ponding in an two day period. 3 inches of rain one day and 2 the next. These ponds are now mostly dry, but the damage is already done. Go look for years that had over 5 inches in a week and cross reference that against trend yields and I suspect you'll find a different outcome.