Fundamentally Speaking

USDA Soybean Yield Est. vs Planting

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

In a prior piece we looked at the USDA corn yield projections given at their annual February Ag Outlook Forum and the estimates given in the May and June WASDE reports.

These were plotted vs. the percent of the U.S. corn crop planted by April 30 and May 30.

In recent years particularly we note that the USDA will alter both the May and June WASDE corn yield estimates in response to a fast or slow corn planting pace.

This apparently is not the case for soybeans with the USDA very rarely altering the June or July soybean yield projection from what they indicated at their February Outlook Forum with the May WASDE yield estimate also the same.

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In fact the June WASDE estimate has been the same one given in February since 1998 and that projection has also been used in the July WASDE estimate with two exceptions.

The first one was in 2008 when the USDA lowered the soybean yield estimate by 0.5 bushels per acre (bpa) to 41.6 bpa and in 2012 when it was lowered a sharp 3.4 bpa to 40.5.

This graphic shows the USDA's soybean yield estimate given at the February Outlook Forum along with those issued in the June and July WASDE reports.

These yield estimates in bushels per acre (bpa) are plotted vs. the percent of the U.S. soybean crop planted by June 1 and crop conditions as of July 1.

To calculate crop conditions we incorporate our usual ratings system where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 0.2 for very poor, 0.4 for poor, 0.6 for fair, 0.8 for good, and 1.0 for excellent and then sum the results.

As opposed to corn the USDA has not adjusted either the June or more likely the July yield estimate in response to fast of slow plantings.

Slow years such as 2011 and 2013 when only 55% of the soybean crop was planted by June 1 did not prompt the USDA to lower its expected yield.

On the other hand poor conditions as of July 1 has led to downward yield adjustments such as 2012 when a very poor 64.4 rating resulted in a sharp downgrade in yields.

Given this we expect the USDA soybean yield projection given at their Outlook forum this past February of 46.0 bpa should be the yield used in the May, June and July WASDE reports this year unless crop conditions as of the end of June are quite poor.

(KA)

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