Fundamentally Speaking

USDA Corn Yield Est. vs. Plantings

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

The USDA will release its first 2015/16 corn balance sheet next month in the May WASDE report and with the 2015 crop still being planted, the balance sheet will use the March 31 planting figures and much of the S&D estimates they used at their annual Outlook Forum given in February.

Of particular interest to us is their yield projection for in the past they have used the same figure issued at the Feb Outlook Forum unless plantings are exceptionally fast or slow.

This graphic shows USDA's yield estimate given at the February Outlook Forum along with those issued in the May and June WASDE reports.

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These yield estimates in bushels per acre (bpa) are plotted vs. the percent of the U.S. corn crop planted by April 30 and May 30.

The average percent of corn planted by April 30 from 1998 to 2014 is 35% and that figure jumps to an average 96% planted by May 30.

The recent years have been quite interesting for in 2014 the USDA issued a 165.3 bpa figure in February and kept that in both the May and June WASDE reports.

In 2013, at its February Outlook Conference the USDA issued a 163.6 bpa yield forecast but with only 7% of the crop planted as of 4/30/13 the May WASDE yield estimate was dropped to 158.0 bpa and only 90% of the crop seeded by 5/30/13 prompted the USDA to lower the 2013 yield again to 156.5 bpa.

Conversely, a fast rate of seedings in 2012 had the USDA put the May 2012 WASDE yield at 166.0 bpa from their Feb Ag Outlook estimate of 164.0 bpa while in 2011 their Feb Outlook yield projection of 161.7 bpa was lowered to 158.7 bpa when only 12% of the crop was in the ground as of 4/30/11.

Keep in mind that while fast or slow plantings can influence the final yield, the impact on yields from summer weather is far greater.

Slow plantings in 2009 did not prevent a record yield from being established while the fast seeding pace in 2012 that prompted the USDA to hike yield estimates was the result of a very dry spring with dryness and drought continuing through the spring and summer resulting in very low final yields.

(KA)

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