Fundamentally Speaking

Corn & Soybean Plantings by May 20th

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

Corn plantings have gotten off to a slightly slower than average start with the USDA reporting that seedings as of April 19th were 9% complete vs. the 13% average.

Market reaction has been subdued as weather forecasts suggest ample opportunity for timely corn seedings over the next two weeks.

Traders monitor corn planting progress for the impact on yield and final acreage of both corn and soybeans.

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This graphic shows the percent of the U.S. corn and soybean crop planted as of May 20 vs. the change in U.S. soybean planted acreage from the Prospective Plantings report issued at the end of March to the final production report given in January in 1000 acres.

A common thought is that fast corn plantings can result in corn acreage higher than forecast in the March intentions report since farmers are well aware of the benefits of early seedings and will often plant extra parcels before switching over to soybeans.

Since 1998 there have been eight instances where U.S. corn plantings have been 90% or more complete as of May 20 and only in 2012 did domestic soybean acreage rise from the March intentions to the final report.

Note that 2012 was a major drought year with conditions already dry in the spring resulting in 76% of the intended soybeans already planted, the highest ever for that date allowing farmers plenty of time to plant extra acres of soybeans.

On the other hand, slow corn plantings can lead to extra soybean acreage and of the ten years when seedings of U.S. corn were less than 80% as of May 20, in seven of those seasons soybean acreage rose from the March intentions to the final production report.

Even though the USDA in its 2015 Prospective Plantings report reported farmers intend to seed a record 84.6 million acres of soybeans, based on a number of other factors that figure is seen increasing in the June Acreage report.

If the pace of U.S. corn seeding continues to lag from the average pace, this would play into ideas of increased soybean planted area.

(KA)

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