Fundamentally Speaking

U.S. Corn Export History

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

Despite a string of impressive weekly sales numbers that have averaged close to 44 million bushels per week over the past two months, the USDA kept their 2014/15 U.S. corn export projection at 1.750 billion bushels in last week's WASDE report.

The accompanying chart shows U.S. corn export sales in million bushels as of the first week of February and those sales and the amount of corn actually shipped since the beginning of the marketing year September 1 as a percent of the February WASDE export projection.

The graphic notes that through the first week of February total sales are 1.305 billion bushels, equal to 75% of the government's estimate.

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Other than the year ago 85% figure this is the highest proportion of the February WASDE corn sales export projection since the 2007/08 season and the third highest for at least the past 25 years.

Despite this impressive sales pace, USDA may be looking at the 678 million bushels that has actually shipped, a mere 35.8% of the current export projection, the second slowest since 1990.

We feel that the pace of shipments will increase as our soybean export program winds down and this will accelerate the shipping pace.

Others urge caution given still competitive values out of the Black Sea and USDA looking for another 2.80 million metric tons of corn exports this year with none from the U.S. and over half from Argentina that is gearing up to harvest another bumper crop.

Even though USDA did increase our corn exports by 317 million bushels from the Feb 2014 WASDE to the final figure last year, note that our corn sales as of the first week of February a year ago was an all-time high 84.8% of the WASDE projection.

From 2000 to 2013 the change in USDA corn export estimate from the Feb WASDE to the final figure has averaged a 62 million bushel decline.

(KA)

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Freeport IL
2/17/2015 | 10:14 AM CST
Southern hemisphere weather is curtailing corn production in some areas. South Africa, for example, may be looking at reductions of 30% or more in some areas. This might cut their exports in half. They tend to export over 2 million metric ton. So this projected reduction might add demand 40 million bushels of additional demand into other markets. The potential of added demand has not shaken Gulf basis levels. That current level indicates our shippers currently have no desire to heat up grain flow. I hope your numbers are a better indication of the future. Freeport, IL