Fundamentally Speaking

Wheat Yields & Growth Rates for Top Producers

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

Among the world's largest producers of bulk agricultural commodities, the U.S. has some of the planets highest corn and soybean yields.

This is not the case for wheat where our yields are relatively modest compared to other nations or regions.

One of reasons is the U.S. grows wheat for quality as opposed to quantity with emphasis on characteristics that are favorable for milling into flour.

Wheat grown in this country is classified by a number of factors including growing season (winter or spring), kernel hardness (hard or soft) and bran color (red or white).

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Wheat in other countries is utilized more for animal feed where it competes or is used in conjunction with various feed grains like corn, barley, oats or sorghum.

The accompanying graphic shows wheat yields this past year for nine of the top producing countries or regions in metric tons per hectare (mt/ha).

The five, fifteen and twenty-five year compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) for each tine period are also plotted.

The highest wheat yields are in the European Union with an average yield of 5.80 metric tons per hectare; they have had the top wheat yields for a number of years though yields do vary among various members ranging from a high in France of 39.0 mt/ha to a low of 5.0 for some of the smaller members.

Favorable weather and increased production in some of the higher yielding countries has the five year CAGR of 2.0% double the 15 year CAGR of 1.0%.

The full 28 members of the European Union came together in 1999 so there is no 25 year CAGR.

With the breakup of the former Soviet Union, some of the highest wheat yield growth rates have come from their former members including Ukraine and Russia that have the highest 5 and 15 year CAGR, allowing their wheat yields to increase at a brisk rate in recent seasons helping them become more influential in the world export arena.

Joel Karlin, Western Milling

(KA)

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Freeport IL
2/6/2015 | 9:42 AM CST
The hard red winter wheat (HRWW); the "old" Kansas City Wheat, spread with soft red winter wheat (SRWW) will be interesting to watch. Should "green up" of SRWW reflect the late planting and poor emergence, the spread could/should be historically weak. A good looking SRWW crop this spring may result in a wider than normal price difference in the two classes of wheat. The wild card may be the willingness of growers to "ride" the risk a poor looking SRWW crop. The financial option to plant poor looking wheat fields to a more profitable alternative crop may not be available this spring. And some of the "new" APH rules might make it less detrimental to have a "bad" yield in ones data base. So some growers may go with the bird in hand â?“ so to speak. Minnesota's spring wheat contract; hard red spring wheat (HRSW), may experience the "normal" widening of spreads with HRWW this spring when/if planting progress has it "normal" rough road. One would not expect the price advantage to be too large for too long for SRSW with the benefit of the weaker Loonie spurring planting in the Canadian prairies. Freeport, IL