Fundamentally Speaking

Global wheat stocks and those supplies as percentage of total consumption are the highest in three years while global corn stocks are the loftiest in 15 years and the resultant stocks to use ratio the largest since the 2002/03 season.

The most bearish scenario resides within the oilseeds complex as soybeans, by far the most produced and consumed oilseed possess both the largest ending stocks and stocks to use ratio on a global level ever.

One of the reasons for this situation is record world wheat, soybean and corn yields that were seen in 2014.

This graphic shows world yields of three of the planet's major crops including corn, wheat and soybeans since the 1961/62 season.

For the first time since the 1997/98 season all three were record high so this is truly an unusual event.

Since we had this yield history we were curious about the trend of each over periods of time.

The compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) of each were calculated for the five, ten, 25 and 50 year periods.

Within the context of debates over how to feed a growing world populace there has been concern about slowing yield growth for the main cereal and oilseed crops and the data here does suggest this may be so.

Note that the 50 year CAGR is higher than the five; ten and 25 year periods for all three and for soybeans the most recent time period has the lowest yield increases.

This is not the case for corn or wheat for though the 50 year CAGR is higher than the 25 year CAGR which is then higher than the ten year CAGR, the five year CGR for both is the second highest next to the 50 year CAGR.

Why soybeans have a lower CAGR than either corn or wheat is subject to debate and further research, though one plausible explanation is with global demand for protein meals and vegetable oils increasing at a faster rate than that for corn or wheat, oilseed plantings have expanded into some regions of the globe that perhaps are not suitable for producing such crops.

(KA)