Fundamentally Speaking

10, 20 and 30 Year Corn Yield Volatility

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

In recent pieces we have looked at corn and soybean yields of the major states and noted how some of the top yielding states in the past were no longer at the top of the lists based on poor results in recent seasons from adverse weather.

Given this we thought it might be interesting to look at the volatility in corn yields for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. over the past ten, twenty, and thirty years.

To measure volatility or variability we used the standard deviation of final yields with the exception of this year where the November USDA figures released earlier this month were utilized.

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So the 1985-2014 yields were used for the 30 year standard deviation, 1995-2014 yields for the 20 year standard deviation, and the 2005-2014 yields for the 10 year standard deviation.

For a number of states, the 30 year standard deviation was greater than either the 20 or 10 year figures indicating that yield variability had fallen over time.

Some states however had higher ten year standard deviations than either the twenty or thirty year figures and this included KS, KY, MO and TX.

For the 30 year period, the lowest volatility as measured by the standard deviation of yields was CO, KS, and TX all Plains states while the highest standard deviations were in IL, IA, and MN that are about the highest yielding corn states of all.

For the 10 year period, CO, MN, and ND had the lowest yield volatility while KY and MO had the highest.

Certainly one consideration is that producers in states that have the highest yield variability may be more inclined to participate in the various crop insurance programs.

(KA)

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