Fundamentally Speaking

Implied corn ear weights

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

The USDA as expected increased its estimate for the 2014 U.S. corn yield to 171.7 bushels per acre (bpa), up from the 167.4 bpa figure given in the August report. This is a new record yield, exceeding the prior high set in 2009 of 164.7 bpa.

Interestingly, while hiking their estimated 10 state corn ear population per acre numbers they increased their implied corn ear weights just slightly as that figure remains below what was seen in 2009 and in 2004 which were the highest implied ear weights ever.

This chart shows the implied corn ear weights for the seven top growing states that have issued corn plant and ear population data continuously since 2000.

Final data for yields and ear populations were used except for 2014 where the September 2014 data was utilized.

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When examining the data it appears that there is upside room for higher ear weights in most of these states and with that, higher yields.

IL has the second highest implied weight behind 2004 while IN recorded higher weights from 2004-2006.

IA had higher implied weights in 2002, 2004-06, and 2009 while MN had higher weights in 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008-10, and 2012.

The all Nebraska implied ear weight that incorporates both the irrigated and non-irrigated acreage had higher weights in 2004, 2008-09 while OH had higher weights in 2006, 2009, and last year.

Finally WI had higher weights in 2005 and 2009-2011.

Many in the trade feel that the U.S. 2014 corn yield will move higher in subsequent reports based on higher implied ear weights going forward.

Historical precedent and ideas that cool summers such as this one will result in another year of high ear weights, similar to what was seen in 2004 and 2009.

We imagine that the late August and September rains will add to test weight and if some of the northern states have a full growing season this will also contribute to heavier ear weights.

(KA)

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