Fundamentally Speaking

Corn Planting Figures by Year

Perhaps later in the growing season, the heavy April Midwest rains will be seen as a blessing in disguise.

For now however, the market is taking the view that enough is enough is enough and many farmers are wondering when they can enter their fields.

Perhaps a more pertinent question is once a planting window opens how fast the 2013 corn crop can get in the ground.

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Keep in mind that today’s modern equipment can result in large amounts of acreage seeded per day.

This chart shows the largest amount of corn planted in a one week and then two week period for each year in the U.S. since 1980 in million acres and that two week acreage as a percent of the March Prospective Plantings corn figure.

Looking back, 1992 stands out as that year saw the largest one week seedings of 34.0 million acres and two week plantings of 49.8 million.

This two week number accounted for about 63% of the 1992 March intentions number and this 63% was seen in 1987 with 1980’s largest two week planting progress 60% of the March plantings estimate.

It is possible that a large amount of corn can be seeded within a two week period? Though the question remains, when will this happen?

The trade already assumes that progress will still be slow as of May 5 but talk is that less than half the crop will be seeded even by May 12.

Keep in mind that back in 2009, only 51% of the crop was planted by May 12, yet national yields that year attained an all-time high of 164.7 bushels per acre.

(KA)

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Freeport IL
4/30/2013 | 5:40 PM CDT
Friday, May 10, 2013, USDA will release their first official view of the new crop (2013-14) balance sheet. The market currently/finally noticed potential corn production problems; rallying a limit move in corn. (I do not remember this occurring on a non-report day but the mind is getting older.) USDA's first view of the new crop is a concern. They could print a conservative/bearish production number (as is their practice) with expectations of lowering it once the "2x4" hits them on the head. Their consumption numbers from February's Ag Forum would also be bearish if those are the numbers used in their first guess. There are reasons to be bullish and USDA could eventually drive the price train back to a higher station. However it may make sense to get off the track this time as the train could speed past us to lower levels. It looks from here like something more than a 3 million acre reduction in planted acres and a delayed planting yield penalty is needed to rationalize jumping on or staying on USDA's train expecting a round trip. (We have a detrended model similar to yours. We looked at the first two weeks of May as no yield penalty, the next two weeks at 90% of trend and the last at 75%. Our weighted yield reduction was 94% of trend.) It is hard to think of a factor that would cause a major up move. If or when the upward move occurs, it seems likely it will be more of a grind higher. But there are many factors that could cause a big down draft. Projections of big domestic production and weak domestic consumption seem to be the main two.
Bryce Anderson
4/30/2013 | 2:52 PM CDT
It should be noted also that July 2009 featured July temperatures around 6 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit below normal in Iowa and Illinois.