Sort & Cull

For a beef cow, the fall season can be a hoof-biting time, a scary period filled with enough anxiety to cause all four stomachs to churn like outboard motors.

This autumn angst can be especially severe if you've unfortunately lost a calf earlier in the year, have a less-than-stellar breeding record, and are, frankly, showing a little age.

What fate lies beyond the pasture gate? Would it be a happy combination of generous corn stalks, an open winter, and a new carefree edition of motherhood? But what if the script involves another short hay crop, the indignity and pessimism of the vet's long arm, and a one-way ticket to the packing plant?

And you thought your life was tough.

Given the fact that beef cow numbers have been steadily eroding since January 1, 2006, (and that's just the small window on herd liquidation), I can imagine that the late summer/early fall temper of she-stock over the last generation or so may have actually become more jaded than skittish.

The extreme drought conditions of 2011 and 2012 must have really promoted a kind of "death march" mentality within the bovine community.

Now I won't pretend to know any more about the true world of animal psychology. Let the "inner cow" speak (somehow) for herself. Yet perhaps we can safely discern some important things from the more verbal ranch hand who now stands ready to swing the gate.

Actions often speak louder than words. The significantly slower action of beef cow slaughter since Memorial Day seems to at least softly thunder that producers are warming to the potential of herd expansion.

In the last 11 weeks of actual slaughter data, federally inspected beef cow slaughter totaled 624,000 head, as much as 10% below the same period last year and 17% short of the 2010-2012 average.

While comparisons are somewhat skewed given the forced movement of the last few summers (as well as the declining base herd), I still think the recent reduction in cow slaughter is telling on several levels.

First of all, it signals that ranchers are generally regaining confidence in the productivity of pasture and range conditions. Relatedly, the slower chain reflects greater optimism regarding stores of winter feed, both in terms of more economical price and greater abundance.

Finally, the summer effort to retain more cows points to the attractiveness of deferred live and feeder cattle futures, historically high price levels that fund profit incentives critical in putting wheels under expansion plans.

None of this means the cow inventory taken on January 1, 2014, will be any larger. This year's Rubicon of net liquidation has already been crossed thanks to the aggressive pace of cow slaughter seen through the January-May period. Nevertheless, we could be seeing an important first step, resulting in decent herd growth through next year and beyond.

Skinny cows probably still need to wear their dentures as they scurry past the ranch foreman this fall. Yet the girls in general should be a bit more relaxed, at long last calmed by signs of a more liberal sort in progress.

http://feelofthemarket.com/…

(AG)

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