An Urban's Rural View

Mid-January approaches; the timetable for passing the farm bill continues to slip. There had been talk of an early-January vote by the House-Senate conferees. Now the talk is week after next. Congress has been working on it for two years, the 2008 farm bill has expired yet again, but we still don't know when a farm bill will pass.

Or IF it will pass. One Capitol Hill ag veteran thinks there's a 60% chance it won't. Too pessimistic? Maybe. But up until now, at least, pessimism has been the safe bet. Legislating requires compromising, which many of today's lawmakers deem as immoral as devil worshipping.

Optimists hope that's changing. Republicans, the optimists reason, have a motive for compromise: Their chances of making gains in this year's Congressional elections improve if they can shed their public image as obstructionists. And if Congress can reach a deal on the budget, surely a farm-bill deal is possible.

Other glimmers of hope: The conferees seem to have compromised on one of the toughest issues of principle—food-stamp cuts. They're at least discussing a compromise on another, the Senate's proposal to cut milk production when prices tumble.

Fair enough, but it's one thing to reach a deal in conference and quite another to get it enacted by the full House and Senate. However beneficial passing legislation might be for the party's electoral prospects, many Republicans will reject the conferees' compromises on principle. And however well it places a party for a general election, the middle of the road is a dangerous place for any Congressman in the primaries.

The more Republican votes the conference report loses, the more Democratic votes will be needed and the more leverage Democrats will have to hold the bill hostage. If they don't get what they want on issues like extending unemployment benefits, some Democrats may see advantage in letting the farm bill die. For one thing, food-stamp spending would continue at current levels.

Meanwhile, the clock ticks. In a post in early December (http://tiny.cc/…), shortly after it had become clear we wouldn't have a farm bill by Thanksgiving, I asked: "What is the real farm-bill deadline?" Two of the possibilities I mentioned—December 13 and December 31 -- have come and gone. The third—January 15 -- seems certain to fly by.

The fourth -- "the day before whatever day USDA's new permanent-law milk-price regime kicks in" -- is still possible. With Congress flailing, you have to wonder how long USDA can continue to ignore the December 31 expiration of the 2008 law.

The final possibility I mentioned in that earlier post -- April Fool's Day -- is also still possible.

And then there's the prospect no one wants to talk about -- that the answer to "when" is "never." We're not there yet, but stay tuned.

Urban Lehner

urbanity@hotmail.com

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