Todd's Take
Todd Hultman DTN Grains Analyst
Tue Feb 9, 2016 06:16 AM CST

Similar to how we looked at corn last week, soybean prices also have a historical tendency to trade in a range related to their production costs as estimated by USDA*. For soybeans, the January futures contract tends to trend within a 20% premium and an 80% premium to cost in years that lacked unusual events like drought.

When I wrote about this a year ago, the expected range for soybeans was $8 to $12. Because USDA estimated 2014-15 U.S. ending soybean stocks at 410 million bushels, Brazil was expecting another record crop, and the U.S. was expected to plant more ...

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