AG POLICY NEWS
Problems with USDA Price Estimates
Todd Hultman DTN Grains Analyst
Thu Jan 30, 2014 03:57 PM CST

By now you've heard USDA reduced its U.S. production estimate for corn on January 10 from 13.989 billion to 13.925 billion bushels and reduced the U.S. ending stocks estimate for 2013-14 from 1.792 billion to 1.631 billion bushels. Quick calculating puts the new ending corn stocks-to-use ratio at 12.4%, the highest in four years. The result is that USDA expects the average farm price for corn to come in somewhere between $4.10 and $4.70 a bushel.

The method of taking USDA's monthly estimates and then translating those estimates into market prices based on the amount of supplies relative to demand ...

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