Ag Weather Forum
Joel Burgio Telvent DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

Thursday 07/17/14

Canada Crops Benefit From Warmer Weather

The current upper level charts feature a weak to moderate ridge over western North America, centered mostly in the U.S., but extending somewhat into southwest Canada as well. The trough that brought recent fairly cool weather to central and east areas of the Canadian Prairies is seen moving off to the east.

The short range maps, today through Monday, show one trough moving east across the region early in the period and the second one tracking into the area later in the period. These systems will bring some showers and thunderstorms back to the area, but most of the heavier activity would be in the west and north areas. We also note a turn to cooler weather again for Alberta, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba turn much warmer during this period. This will likely favor crop development in many areas, mostly due to the warmer weather through central and east areas.

The longer range charts, days six to 10 of the forecast, show the western U.S. ridge strengthening and building first north and then east over the U.S Rockies and plains regions. This ridge may be strong enough to push some fairly warm weather north into the Canadian Prairies for a short period.

However, there are signs of yet another strong short wave trough moving in off the Pacific by the middle of the six-to-10-day period. This new trough may force the U.S. ridge back towards the south again which would lead to another round of thunderstorms and windy conditions for the Canadian Prairies region. It is somewhat uncertain as to where these storms would be the heaviest, but the early call on this would be somewhere in the central or east part of the belt. Temperaturess would turn cooler again behind this trough, at least for a time.

The strength of the U.S. ridge early in the six-to-10-day period makes the forecast for the Canadian Prairies somewhat uncertain. A strong ridge may force the thunderstorms further north and it could pass by the major growing belt. It also is possible, even if thunderstorms do occur in the major growing belt, that the ridge would rebuild following the passage of the trough and send another round of warm and dry weather back into the area.

In either case, is appears we are setting up for another period of more active weather for the region which will make the weather during the next week or so rather changeable.

(ES)

Posted at 12:48PM CDT 07/17/14 by Joel Burgio
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