As we enter the latter half of June, it appears we will continue to be experiencing this "perfect storm" of weather in the central US as it regards developing corn and soybeans. We will continue to see the influence of: 1) Blocking high pressure in Alaska, Canada and Greenland promoting mild/cool temperatures across much of southern Canada and the northern US; and 2) Weak to moderate subtropical high pressure over Mexico extending northward at times into the southern US.
The jet stream will flow between the cool air to the north and the warmer air to the south--right through the heart of the major Midwest and Plains growing areas. Disturbances embedded within this jet stream will be the focus of frequent and active bands of scattered showers and thunderstorms. This rainfall is likely enhanced by the warmer waters of the tropical Pacific and the resultant El Nino pattern that we are now experiencing.
The only negatives about this pattern would be that some areas of the northern Midwest and northern Plains could benefit from less rain and warmer temperatures. Also, some parts of the southern Plains and southern US would like some drier weather for the wheat harvest. But, overall, it is hard to find much of be concerned about. The weather just doesn't get much better than this.
The area of the world that we are keeping a close eye on is India. This monsoon so far this season, although it is early, has not shown much organization and has been displaced well to the south of normal over interior locations. With El Nino now a player in the world's weather patterns, we will be watching this situation closely as there are known correlations between El Nino conditions and below normal performance of the monsoon.
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