Ag Weather Forum
Joel Burgio Telvent DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

Thursday 06/12/14

Warmer, Drier Conditions Possible Ahead for Canada

The active weather pattern continues during the next five to six days or so for Canada. We expect to see showers and some rain moving through southern and eastern areas at times from now through Monday, at least. We may also see showers through central and northwest areas as well. Temperatures average sometimes near normal but most times below normal during this period. Cool and wet conditions may hamper fieldwork for some, except in areas that may miss a few of these showers. Cool weather also slows germination and early growth of earlier-planted crops in the region.

Today's U.S. and European weather models show what may be a warmer and drier period for much of the area beginning on or about next Tuesday. The U.S. model suggests that the mean trough moves eastward by early next week and the next upstream trough is slower to move in. This model is suggesting a period of warmer and drier weather lasting at least three to five days and possibly a little longer. I would not expect this to last much longer than that since a progressive pattern would bring more rain chances in just beyond this period.

Today's European model is a little different but also suggests a period of warmer and drier weather, for a different reason. This model shows the trough dropping southward into the western U.S. early next week before weakening and lifting back towards the northwest later in the period. Once the trough is far enough to the south this would leave high pressure in place across the Canadian Prairies grains and oilseed regions.

In either case, we look for a period of warmer and drier weather. I would advise caution, however. We have seen drier and warmer weather in the region earlier in the spring but then it turns cooler again. This is likely due to the tendency for high latitude ridging over western and central Canada. High pressure to the north leads to low pressure to the south and an active jet stream. There are signs on the models, especially the European model, that this high latitude ridge will continue. This likely means that any break in the current wet pattern would end sooner, rather than later.

Posted at 6:45PM CDT 06/12/14 by Joel Burgio
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