Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Thursday 05/22/14

Warm Streak Continued In April

NOAA's April Climate Report shows that worldwide temperatures once again ran above normal for April 2014--even with a cooler trend in the U.S. The summary is posted below. --Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Global Summary Information - April 2014

April 2014 global temperature ties for record highest

Year-to-date sixth warmest on record

Many areas of the world were much warmer than average, with much of central Siberia observing temperatures more than 9 deg F (5 deg C) above the 1981–2010 average. This region, along with parts of eastern Australia and scattered regions in every major ocean basin, were record warm, as indicated by the Land & Ocean Percentiles map below. No land areas were record cold.

Global temperature highlights: April

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces tied with 2010 as the highest on record for April, at 58.09 deg F (14.47 deg C) or 1.39 deg F (0.77 deg C) above the 20th century average.

April 2014 Blended Land & Sea Surface Temperature Percentiles

April marked the 38th consecutive April and 350th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average temperature for April was in 1976 and the last average or below-average temperature for any month was February 1985.

The average global land temperature was the third highest on record for April, at 2.43 deg F (1.35 deg C) above the 20th century average.

Some national highlights are included below:

Although the global temperature tied for record highest, the contiguous U.S. observed only its 46th-warmest April and much of Canada had cooler-than-average to near-average temperatures for the month. This contrast is an example of how a globally-averaged temperature can differ from a single smaller region.

It was the third-warmest April since records began in 1910 for the United Kingdom, at 3.2 deg F (1.8 deg C) above the 1981–2010 average. April also marked the fifth month in a row of above-average temperatures for the UK.

Following its third warmest March on record, the average April temperature across Norway was the seventh-highest for the month since national records began in 1900, at 4.3 deg F (2.4 deg C) above the 1981–2010 average.

Denmark had its fourth-warmest April on record, at 5.4 deg F (3.0 deg C) higher than the 1961–1990 average, with records dating back to 1874. Including this year, the four warmest Aprils for the country have all occurred since 2007.

Australia observed its seventh-highest average temperature for April since records began in its 105-year period of record, at 2.02 deg F (1.12 deg C) higher than the 1961–1990 average. The average minimum temperature was fourth highest for April, at 2.38 deg F (1.32 deg C) above average, with Queensland setting a new record high monthly minimum temperature for the state.

For the ocean, the April global sea surface temperature was 0.99 deg F (0.55 deg C) above the 20th century average of 60.9 deg F (16.0 deg C), the third-highest for April on record.

Neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions were present across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during April. However, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the chance of El Nino increases for the rest of the year, exceeding 65 percent during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014.

Precipitation highlights: April

As is typical, monthly precipitation varied greatly across the globe during April, with many areas seeing either much below-average or much above-average precipitation. Notably, a few areas of western South America, northern Africa, and Southeast Asia were record dry. Part of the southeastern U.S., southern Argentina, and the southeastern tip of South Africa were record wet.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita made landfall in Queensland Australia north of Cooktown on April 11. According to satellite data, rain was falling at a rate of 3.6 inches (91 mm) per hour near the center of the storm as it approached land. The storm also severely impacted the Solomon Islands, along with Papua New Guinea and nearby islands.

On April 29 and 30, torrential rain fell across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and northeastern United States. In Pensacola, Florida, the two-day precipitation total was 20.47 inches (520 mm). With 15.55 inches (395 mm) of the total falling on the 29th, this marked the all-time wettest calendar day in Pensacola since records began in 1880, breaking the previous record of 15.29 inches (388 mm), recorded on October 5th 1934 when an unnamed tropical storm impacted the area.

Polar ice highlights: April and Seasonal

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent, from the April 2014 Global Snow & Ice Report

According to NOAA data analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for April was the sixth-smallest in the 48-year period of record at 11.0 million square miles, which was 0.6 million square miles below the 1981–2010 average. Eurasian snow cover extent was the smallest on record for April, dipping below the previous record small April snow cover extent that occurred in 2008. The North American snow cover extent was the 14th largest on record.

The average Arctic sea ice extent for April was 5.46 million square miles, 240,000 square miles (4.1 percent) below the 1981–2010 average, resulting in the fifth-smallest monthly April extent on record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

On the opposite pole, the Antarctic sea ice extent for April was 3.47 million square miles, 610,000 square miles (21.6 percent) above the 1981–2010 average. This marked the largest April Antarctic sea ice extent on record, surpassing the previous record large April Antarctic sea ice extent that occurred in 2008 by more than 120,000 square miles. Much of the above-average ice extent occurred in the Weddell Sea off the West Antarctic coast.

Combining the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, April global sea ice was 8.93 million square miles, 4.5 percent above the 1981–2010 average. This was the third-largest global April sea ice extent on record, behind April 1982 and 1979.

(ES/)

Posted at 9:43AM CDT 05/22/14 by Bryce Anderson
Comments (25)
What about satellite temperature monitoring? I'm told it doesn't show the above average heat that urban roof top heat monitors are indicating. I'm also told that 87% of land based heat monitors are compromised in regard to representative temperatures. NOAA shut down some 600 for that reason - are other countries as conscientious? Something isn't adding up if combined Arctic and Antarctic sea ice is 4.5% above 1981-2010 average and we've had 350 consecutive months of rising "global" temperatures.
Posted by Curt Zingula at 6:14AM CDT 05/23/14
I've read global warming hasn't happened since 1997. Which is it somebody's lying.
Posted by JEFF RIDDER at 12:14PM CDT 05/23/14
Regarding heat monitors--let's call them thermometers--NOAA scientists have studied the same questions about urban heat island effects. While those do exist, there are statistical approaches to the data which can allow for the heat island effect and correct for that issue. Also, there are weather stations far away from big city centers in the wide-open spaces that show the same trends in temperature as the urban areas do--and those trends are warmer. As far as the sea ice is concerned, there will always be fluctuations year-in and year-out. New ice forms during the winter, and may stay around a bit longer if the winter is cooler. However, the long-term trend is for less ice. There is not as much old ice in the Arctic as there used to be and there have been many consequences--one of which is new areas opened up for oil exploration.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 1:25PM CDT 05/23/14
In the 1960s, as a child, i noticed when i was in the "woods" it was a great deal cooler than it was in the field. (Probably had something to do with the forest pulling water from the earth and releasing it to the air!) Well guess what, we cut down all the forest to plant crops to feed a hungry world. We could replant all the forests and cool the world! Or we can feed them. Tough choice.
Posted by BD, NE LA. at 6:09PM CDT 05/23/14
Western Canada soil temps are below normal and crop emergence is slow. Planting has been hampered by cool temps and rain. Has not global warming been replaced with climate change because it's harder to dispute, the climate is always changing to some degree. When I was young the catch words were 'ice age and climate cooling' . Maybe the so called scientists should stay out of the political sciences.
Posted by ROBERT RICHARDS at 8:14AM CDT 05/26/14
NOAA is run by the U.S. government which now has a Senate run by leftist socialist Democrats and a President who is an even bigger liar than the Clintons. Goofy old Harry Reid has even become an embarrassment to the Democrats. When you have a study that starts quoting several different time frames and keeps talking averages from all over the world start to worry about the results especially if it proves the case for government control and revenues for the govt. Ruining our economy will not help the world. If all of you people really want to help go to China or Russia protest their coal and fossil fuel use and while you are there look around at their cities you might get a good view from your jail cell or re-education camp. Their lies are enforced a little more vigorously than ours. While you are their you can study what it is like to live in a government that has total control of everything. I am not willing to become a lesser country and give up any of my freedoms . Obama and the Democrats and the U.N. cant get what they will trying to get through their committees and rules and studies with no legislation. Global Warming is the current route. I you notice the rich, the famous, the idiot Hollywood left, liberal Democrats just cant have poor old average folks running around left to our own devices exercising our freedoms given to us by a Constitution and Bill Of Rights that don't core much for.
Posted by GORDON KEYES at 10:22AM CDT 05/26/14
Back in the 1970's, the scientists were preachen global cooling and predicting the next ice age.
Posted by bbob at 1:49PM CDT 05/26/14
Cost of utilities for electric, heat and powering my Leaf for the past 12 months, -$400,,, carbon footprint, zero,,,,, enjoy your fossil economy boys!
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 9:20PM CDT 05/26/14
sorry, that is a minus $400, electric company pays me for the extra kilowatts I generate.
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 5:19AM CDT 05/27/14
As has been pointed out here several times--scientists were not--repeat not--calling for global cooling in the 1970s.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 5:43AM CDT 05/27/14
Time magazine and others were writing articles on the subject in the 70s were they the same folks that are carrying on now. Follow the money and you the biggest proponents are all receiving some of the goodies. Such as Jay who gets paid an inflated rate for his excess electricity and does not have to sell it on the open market. If it is your job to promote global warming and for a few bucks it becomes a great cause.
Posted by GORDON KEYES at 6:30AM CDT 05/27/14
"global cooling 1970's" google it and read all about the predictions.
Posted by bbob at 7:13AM CDT 05/27/14
Ah Gordon, glad you know all about my biz,,,, I actually get wholesale price for the excess I generate. Solar has become much cheaper and under the magic $1/watt cost for solar panels but hey you guys beleive your world according to Rushbo,,,, and by the way I have followed the money and it leads to Exxon and the Koch Brothers. Why don't you folks look into solar, just go out and check some prices, the farm buildings make a great place for it and you don't have to tell Rush and Hanity you have it. Everyone knew solar got much cheaper when a notorious local Tea extremist smothered his barn in solar panels.
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 7:14AM CDT 05/27/14
I have posted these statistics before, but here they are again regarding the "global cooling" comment--A survey of the scientific literature has found that between 1965 and 1979, 44 scientific papers predicted warming, 20 were neutral and just 7 predicted cooling. So while predictions of cooling got more media attention, the majority of scientists were predicting warming even then. Out of 71 papers reviewed, only TEN percent predicted cooling in the future. 44 out of 71--or SIXTY-TWO percent--predicted warming.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 7:21AM CDT 05/27/14
Lucky for you Jay we have Exxon and others or you would be starved to death. You talk your pathetic small ideas, that would not sustain our world today.
Posted by GWL 61 at 10:35AM CDT 05/27/14
Pretty easy to see who is signing who's paycheck.
Posted by Brandon Butler at 1:02PM CDT 05/27/14
Jay, What are your thoughts on Al Gore?
Posted by Brandon Butler at 2:12PM CDT 05/27/14
Bryce, I'm disappointed you didn't answer my question about satellite temperature monitors or "thermometers" in this post's first comment. Good? Bad? Different results than urban roof top "adjusted" thermometers and using modeling for discontinued Canadian thermometers?
Posted by Curt Zingula at 7:33AM CDT 05/28/14
The question regarding temperature accuracy was indeed answered. The answer is--NOAA scientists have studied the same questions about urban heat island effects. While those do exist, there are statistical approaches to the data which can allow for the heat island effect and correct for that issue. Also, there are weather stations far away from big city centers in the wide-open spaces that show the same trends in temperature as the urban areas do--and those trends are warmer.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 8:29AM CDT 05/28/14
A government agency would not manipulate the statistical approaches to the data to get the desired results they wanted would they ? They know what Obama and our Socialist Democrats want and they like their jobs and paycheck . They know what happens to people who do not agree with the regime.
Posted by GORDON KEYES at 11:23AM CDT 05/28/14
Go to Google and type in UK Telegraph Climategate There you can find out how information and data are manipulated to prove what to prove. East Anglia U. Penn U. and the groups whose E mails were hacked to prove the hockey stick graph and their other lies and the frustration they had when could not be proven. Makes you wonder what Obamas EPA head Lisa Jackson had on her secret government E mail account. Why did she suddenly resign and the subject dropped ?
Posted by GORDON KEYES at 4:13PM CDT 05/28/14
The "Climategate" accusations have been proved to be false. The campaign allegations of data manipulation by scientists in the U.S. and United Kingdom were found to have no justification.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 5:37AM CDT 05/29/14
Looks like it must be pay day.
Posted by Brandon Butler at 8:19AM CDT 05/29/14
Climategate, debunked by the people that swear by it and have been promote it what a surprise. Sworn to be true by the folks who receive all of the power and money by promoting it. The liberal cause celeb for media political and others who need a cause. Obama says it is settled science undoubtedly learned in all of the science class he excelled in. He can hardly wait for a carbon tax it would be another great wealth distribution scheme.
Posted by GORDON KEYES at 9:17AM CDT 05/29/14
Any temperature range graph shows that warming since 1900 has been consistent with only slight interruptions. Comments are closed for this blog posting. There will be other items and opportunities for discussion in the near future.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 10:00AM CDT 05/29/14
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