Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Tuesday 11/19/13

Australia ENSO Comment

The latest Pacific Ocean commentary from the Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) keeps a neutral tone to the ocean conditions through the summer season Down Under--which of course is winter here in North America.--Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state with all atmospheric and oceanic indicators within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current ENSO-neutral state of the tropical Pacific will persist through to the end of the southern hemisphere summer.

While ENSO is the dominant natural driver of Australia's climate, a neutral period does not guarantee a benign or normal season. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the tropical Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards a significantly wetter or drier period for Australia. When ENSO is in a neutral phase, more localised weather extremes can and do occur due to the influence of secondary or local factors. For instance, near-record warm sea surface temperatures around parts of the Australian coastline are currently likely to be influencing regional climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral. It typically does not influence the Australian climate during the months from December to April.

(ES/CZ)

Posted at 2:49PM CST 11/19/13 by Bryce Anderson
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