As we are now entering the last 10 days of October a few comments can be made about the beginning of the main growing season in South America,
It appears that ENSO neutral conditions will dominate through the growing season. No signs of either an El Nino or La Nina developing. Therefore we do not have the luxury this year of skewing our weather outlooks in either direction. This makes seasonal outlooks more difficult than usual.
We can make some observations about the weather patterns during the past 30 days. In Brazil the tendency has been towards a slower than normal start to the rainy season in the main soybean areas of west-central Brazil and a very wet past 30 days in the southern growing areas of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. This has generally kept soybean planting progress behind normal. Longer term we are not overly concerned about this as rainfall will pick up in west central Brazil as we move further into the growing season due to the tropical nature of the pattern and as this happens rainfall should lessen in southern Brazil. The main impact of the wet weather in southern Brazil has been on the wheat crop which is maturing and being harvested under very wet conditions which will lead to quality concerns and harvest losses.
Across Argentina it has been a dry start to the season in the main corn and soybean areas and northern wheat areas of central Argentina. It appeas this pattern will persist at this time. This will become more of an issue if it continues into November and could cause some shifting of corn acreage into soybean acreage. Dryness has also impacted the winter wheat crop in these areas. The main southern winter wheat areas have had adequate rainfall with the crop in pretty good shape. However with the chance of frost and freeze conditions later this week things could change.