After the wet start to the growing season in central Argentina and southern Brazil conditions have been trending drier during the month of January. We have seen in the past where a wet spring can lead to a drier summer in these areas and this summer appears to be going in that direction. The greatest threat will be to filling soybeans although corn could suffer as well in Argentina since it was planted late.
The outlook calls for the chance of scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier in central Argentina on Friday and in southern Brazil over the weekend. However if this system behaves like the one we saw last week, and it appears similiar rainfall totals will be disappointing. Beyond this system much of next week looks dry. Temperatures which had not been very hot despite the increased dryness have begun to heat up at times during the past week with some readings in the middle 90s to low 100s f. We would expect to see longer periods of hot weather going forward if the dry weather persists and we think it could.
The situation in central Brazil (Mato Grosso) has also changed. The spring planting season featured some dryness concerns and delayed planting. We have now seen a shift to a wetter pattern during the past few weeks which will have an impact on the soybean harvest if it continues.
Depsite the fact that we are in overall neutral conditions in the pacific the spring patterns in South America seemed more El Nino like but the summer patterns have taken on a more of a La Nina characteristic. This is not good news as La Ninas tend to be dry in central Argentina and southern Brazil. This dryness seems to be timing out to impact the important pod filling stages of development. Stay tuned.
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