In case you did not see this--a recent article on the Climate Central web site by Andrew Freedman highlights how there was one weather forecast model which predicted the Drought of 2012 several months before it developed. Here is an excerpt from Freedman's article (emphasis is mine):
For example, a computer model ensemble developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, N.J., correctly anticipated the heat and dryness in projections made as early as January 2012. Later projections in early March, with the model fed with, or "initialized," with weather and climate data from February, also showed a likelihood of much above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation across the Central U.S. during the spring and summer.
Here is a brief description of the GFDL from the lab's website:
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is engaged in comprehensive long lead-time research fundamental to NOAA's mission. Scientists at GFDL develop and use mathematical models and computer simulations to improve our understanding and prediction of the behavior of the atmosphere, the oceans, and climate. GFDL scientists focus on model-building relevant for society, such as hurricane research, prediction, and seasonal forecasting, and understanding global and regional climate change.
I will be very interested in any updates from the GFDL ensemble as we go into the end of this year and early 2013. I anticipate that its findings will get a lot of attention.
Here is the link to the GFDL website: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/…
And for the full article on the GFDL's drought forecast from early 2012, go to this link: http://tinyurl.com/…
I'm on Twitter @BAndersonDTN
© Copyright 2012 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved.