Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Wednesday 11/07/12

Post-Sandy Forecast Controversy

I posted a blog item last week on the way that Hurricane Sandy focused attention on a lag in performance of the U.S. weather forecast model compared to the European model--but this is a big enough subject that it's worth another look. Following is a link to an article by Politico that has more detail on the deficiencies in development--and yes, funding $$$--that the "Sandy" event exposed. Here is the introduction:

Sandy is calling new attention to a long-running debate about whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is getting the money and resources it needs to track and predict life-threatening storms.

Yes, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center nailed the forecast track four days out, projecting that the ferocious storm would slam into the New Jersey coast and giving officials time to warn of deadly flooding and wind.

But some wonder if the public could have gotten warning even earlier.

http://tinyurl.com/…

Bryce

I'm on Twitter http://twitter.com/…

(CZ/SK)

Posted at 10:00AM CST 11/07/12 by Bryce Anderson
Comments (2)
So where are the blogs or write-ups from these ecmwf worshippers when that model turns out to be wrong or caves to the gfs? The gfs is a good model but it has it's flaws and so does the ecmwf. 4-5 day warning time should give the public plenty of time to take notice and prepare. I think it's foolish to base a forecast off one model 7 + days out as many times the forecast turns out to be wrong. Kudos to the euro with sandy but credit should be given to the cmc also.
Posted by Rick S at 8:00AM CST 11/08/12
Thanks for the comment Rick. I think that the aspect of satellite outage concerns is possibly as important an issue as model performance. And yes, 4-5 days out for a call on the landfall of Sandy did offer more lead time than we have seen in other hurricane instances.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 1:18PM CST 11/08/12
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