Ag Weather Forum
Doug Webster DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

Thursday 11/01/12

Winter Envelops Canadian Prairies

Winter has taken over in a big way for most of the Canadian Prairies during the past week or two with both some snow and much colder temperatures bringing a blanket of a few inches of snow to most. Precipitation prospects during the next 10 days don't look all that great but could ramp up a bit after we pass day 7.

The current cold weather pattern looks like it will come to a close gradually during the weekend with several mild days taking hold during next week. One last low pressure area is expected to track along to the south of the Canadian border Friday into Saturday allowing for another bout of light snows. A few inches may again be deposited across the southern and central portions of Alberta eastward to Manitoba.

During the mild stretch of weather next week we would expect most of the snow cover to melt with the moisture setting into the soil. The mild weather will occur as the jet stream lifts northward into the central part of western Canada sending the storm track northward. The resulting westerly wind flow will produce mostly dry down slope winds from the Rockies as well as mild temperature readings.

There are signs that changes may come after we get through next week. Most of the model guidance we use indicates a trough shifting from the Pacific into the western portion of Canada during the second week of November. Assuming this verifies we could expect a turn to colder weather as polar and arctic air drains southward from the Yukon and NWT. At the same time the storm track should come southward allowing for upslope winds to return to the Prairies helping to produce some snowfall of varying intensities. The heaviest snow amounts are usually along the east slopes of the Rockies with lighter amounts out onto the Prairies.

A glance at the regions monthly outlook by some of our climate models would indicate the potential for colder than normal temperatures along with slightly above normal precipitation amounts for November. This would be good news for covering and protecting dormant winter wheat from any extreme cold as well as bringing some moisture that can be used next spring.

Posted at 10:17AM CDT 11/01/12 by Doug Webster
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