Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Tuesday 09/25/12

IRI Pacific Forecast

The latest forecast for Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures has been issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The forecast is generally for a weak El Nino. Here's the summary of that forecast.

If El Nino does tail off going into late winter and spring, it could mean a lessening of precipitation over the central and eastern Midwest along with the southern Plains. A weaker El Nino could also hinder moisture development in South America.

Bryce

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Most of the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued during late August and early September 2012 predict continuation of weak El Nino Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions during the September-November season, continuing into the northern winter 2012-13. A very small proportion of the models predict ENSO-neutral SST conditions throughout 2012. Most of the models predicting El Nino continuation now call for a weak event; only a few models predict a moderate or stronger event. It is worth noting that although El Nino SST conditions have existed for at least two months already, the atmospheric aspects of El Nino have been very slow to develop and are still not yet clearly present. Still, most models predict an increase in atmospheric coupling to accompany the warmed SST.

The full forecast article is at this link:

http://tinyurl.com/…

Posted at 11:22AM CDT 09/25/12 by Bryce Anderson
Comments (3)
Interesting that the atmospheric "signatures" for El Nino have not made themselves noticed. Is it possible that dwindling polar ice caps are changing ocean circulations and distorting models?
Posted by Joe Logan at 11:45AM CDT 09/25/12
Joe, that's a very good question and I am sure it's one that is being discussed somewhere right now.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:11PM CDT 09/25/12
I have often wondered if the ice breaking ships are causing change in ocen temps. Water would absorbe more sun light when ice would reflect it. John Miller
Posted by Unknown at 2:47PM CDT 09/26/12
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