Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Tuesday 09/25/12

IRI Pacific Forecast

The latest forecast for Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures has been issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The forecast is generally for a weak El Nino. Here's the summary of that forecast.

If El Nino does tail off going into late winter and spring, it could mean a lessening of precipitation over the central and eastern Midwest along with the southern Plains. A weaker El Nino could also hinder moisture development in South America.



Most of the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued during late August and early September 2012 predict continuation of weak El Nino Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions during the September-November season, continuing into the northern winter 2012-13. A very small proportion of the models predict ENSO-neutral SST conditions throughout 2012. Most of the models predicting El Nino continuation now call for a weak event; only a few models predict a moderate or stronger event. It is worth noting that although El Nino SST conditions have existed for at least two months already, the atmospheric aspects of El Nino have been very slow to develop and are still not yet clearly present. Still, most models predict an increase in atmospheric coupling to accompany the warmed SST.

The full forecast article is at this link:…

Posted at 11:22AM CDT 09/25/12 by Bryce Anderson
Comments (3)
Interesting that the atmospheric "signatures" for El Nino have not made themselves noticed. Is it possible that dwindling polar ice caps are changing ocean circulations and distorting models?
Posted by Joe Logan at 11:45AM CDT 09/25/12
Joe, that's a very good question and I am sure it's one that is being discussed somewhere right now.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:11PM CDT 09/25/12
I have often wondered if the ice breaking ships are causing change in ocen temps. Water would absorbe more sun light when ice would reflect it. John Miller
Posted by Unknown at 2:47PM CDT 09/26/12
Post a Blog Comment:
Your Comment:
DTN reserves the right to delete comments posted to any of our blogs and forums, for reasons including profanity, libel, irrelevant personal attacks and advertisements.
Blog Home Pages
September  2015
      1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30         
Subscribe to Ag Weather Forum RSS
Recent Blog Posts
  • Dry Late August Has Impact
  • Warm, Dry Weather Supports Harvest for W. Canada
  • NOAA: El Nino Winter Impact
  • New Record Warmth in July
  • Rains Affect Prairies Harvest
  • Rainy September Possible
  • More Rain, Lower Temperatures Ahead for Western Canada
  • July Temperatures Helped Crops
  • Wide Variety in Midwest Rain
  • Most of W. Canada Moisture Situation Improves
  • Dryness Forming in ECB
  • Wet Harvest Possible With El Nino
  • Beneficial Rains Fall on Many Parts of the Prairies
  • Increasing World El Nino Concerns
  • Crop Ratings Stay Solid
  • Some Prairie Areas Miss Out on Beneficial Rains
  • Crop Report Comments
  • Rainfall Boosts Soil Moisture in Western Canada
  • Crop Report Comments
  • Showers Show Some Promise For W. Canada