Ag Weather Forum
Joel Burgio Telvent DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

Friday 09/07/12

World Highlights and Crop Impact

Northeast China: Recent rains have provided favorable moisture for any late filling soybeans in the key growing areas of the north, however these rains have been somewhat unfavorable for maturing corn and the early harvest. The weather this coming week should feature rains followed by several cool days. This is probably not the best weather for crops of the region at this time of the year.

Central China: It has turned quite wet in this area during the past couple of weeks with more rain due this weekend and again early next week. Rain at this late date is unfavorable for mature crops and likely delays and disrupts the summer crop harvests. This is especially concerning for open boll cotton but corn and groundnut crops may also be impacted. Rains will provide adequate to surplus soil moisture and irrigation for the winter wheat and winter rapeseed crops that will be planted in the area. However, the field work will be delayed until the soils firm somewhat.

India Monsoon: Rains through far north, far west and south India continue significantly below normal for the season to date. However, during this past week we have seen a significant increase in rains through some of the driest areas of west-central India and southern Pakistan. Crops in the area that may benefit include groundnuts, cotton, winter wheat and winter rapeseed. It is not certain how much we can improve summer grown crops but the winter grown crops will greatly benefit from this rain. The soybean crop in the area was already doing well based on above average rains to date. The late rain will be unfavorable for the maturing soybean crop and could delay the early harvest. The south India crop areas are still relatively dry but these areas could still rain into November as the Monsoon withdraws from the northwest.

Europe: Southeast Europe continues to suffer due to summer dryness and late season drought. The corn and sunflower crops have likely been impacted, especially when it was very hot during the mid-summer period. The winter grown crops will also be impacted as the dry weather pattern continues. Winter rapeseed planting has already been delayed by the dryness. Winter wheat planting delays will follow if rains due not arrive soon. Winter rapeseed and winter wheat areas from England and France to Germany and Poland are in much better shape at this time. However, dryness across north France during August may be somewhat concerning, after prior rains in the area for most of the summer period.

Ukraine/West Russia: Summer drought and heat has impacted crops in south and east Ukraine and south Russia, especially corn and sunflower. Late August and early September rains have provided a boost to soil moisture in the area. This may be too late to significantly improve the outlook for these crops but it could improve prospects for winter wheat that is currently being planted in the area.

Australia: Winter wheat ranges from vegetative growth to jointing across the key growing areas as we move towards spring. Soil moisture is favorable at this time through the south and east crop areas due to early winter rains. More rain will be needed in the north part of this area as warmer temperatures advance development of this crop and moisture requirements increase. West Australia wheat areas have seen some shower activity during the past week but more rain is needed as this area did not see the heavier early winter rains. An El Nino is developing in the Pacific at this time. El Nino years are typically dry and warm in the east Australia wheat belt. It will be interesting to see if this holds for the current growing season.

South Africa: An unusual late winter storm have brought heavy rains to key sugarcane and maize areas of the region this week. This helps build soil moisture and irrigation for these crops but planting is not usually active this early in the season. The development of El Nino in the Pacific may mean that this region will suffer from dryness concerns during the summer growing season, December to February. This makes the rains of this week even more unusual for the region.

Posted at 10:53AM CDT 09/07/12 by Joel Burgio
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